Moscow Must Combat Increasing Militarization of the Caspian by Diplomacy Not Force, Iranian Analyst Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, May 7 -- Khayal Muazzin, an Iranian political analyst says that the diversification of the security policies of the Caspian littoral states has resulted in the militarization of  that sea by outside powers and that Moscow must combat it by a more active diplomacy rather than by force alone.

            The militarization of the Caspian is “already underway. It is simply tht this process is not always evident on the surface. The naval presence of outsiders is being bolstered, surveillance systems are being modernized, air defense capabilities are being developed, and increased attention is being directed toward the security of ports and maritime routes” (caspian.land/37356-kaspijskaja-voronka-militarizacija-i-strategicheskie-riski-dlja-rossii.html).

            Muazzin says that even taken together, however, “this does not appear to be preparation for an immediate conflict. Rather, it is creating a new reality, one in which the states of the region understand that stability is no longer self-guaranteeing; and they are beginning to fortify their positions in advance.”

            As a result, he continues, “the question is no longer whether militarization will occur but rather what its depth and pace will be and how it will be integrated with diplomatic mechanisms.” Indeed, the Iranian analyst says, “the Caspian is gradually changing from “a tranquil inland sea’ into a theater of strategic balance” over the longer term.

            “The most probable scenario in the near term is the persistence of high levels of tension within the region. A resolution does not appear imminent; rather, it is likely to unfold not as a sudden event, but as a gradual process—taking shape through shifts in the balance of power and successive stages of confrontation," Muezzin says.

            And he adds for his Russian audience: “this represents [for Moscow] a test of its leadership, one however that emphasizes not military might but agile diplomacy.” If the Russian side is successful, the Caspian “may yet return to cooperation free from ‘external advisors.’ But there is a great risk it will instead devolve into a zone of chronic instability.”