Varangian-Local Division among Russia's Governors No Longer Only One That Matters, Kynyev Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, May 1 – Ever since Vladimir Putin began installing as governors people from the outside, known in Russian as “Varangians,” analysts and observers have been dividing the gubernatorial corps of the Russian Federation between them and people who have grown up in the federal subject where they are now head, Aleksandr Kynyev says.

            But in a new study, the HSE political scientist argues that, the real divide is now between those who act simply as agents of the Kremlin regardless of how local people feel and those who mobilize the population by reaching out and winning local support (ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/06/01/regionalnaya-nomenklatura-v-2026-godu-evolyutsiya-i-adaptatsiya-v-novih-usloviyah-a196888).

            Kynyev, who gained wide.spread attention for his 2024 book that compared these two groups and helped solidify the Varangian-local divide, now says that recent developments show that the situation has become more complicated in part because many Varangians have learned that only by reaching out can they be effective. 

            And as the Kremlin has made effectiveness ever more important than personal loyalty among governors (club-rf.ru/theme/693), that is a powerful incentive to work more closely with local elites rather than use Moscow’s backing to override any and all opposition to what Moscow wants.

            Obviously, that does not mean that governors from the outside appointed by Putin are going to cease to do what he wants or that this shift, which involves only some of the governors even now, is about to return the Russian Federation to the 1990s when governors were local powerhouses and regularly opposed Moscow.

            But it does introduce a new element in regional politics and may mean, during the looming succession crisis, even Varangians who have reached out to the population, may more quickly move to its side against some in Moscow than analysts have suggested in recent years.

            For that reason, the details that Kynyev offers in his 8,000-word analysis of changes in gubernatorial behavior over the last several years are important and suggest that even the appointment of Varangians doesn’t ensure that they will remain on the sidelines if they calculate the center is weakening.