Paul Goble
Staunton, Sept. 4 – On September 1, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said that he believes that “Turkey will reclaim Adjara,” a 400,000-strong autonomous republic in southwestern Georgia adjoining Turkey whose residents are overwhelmingly ethnic Georgia but a third of whom are Muslims and speak a Turkish-influenced Georgia dialect.
Despite the hopes of some in Turkey and Russia, the Ajars did not develop the kind of ethnic or regional identities that might have led them to challenge Tbilisi as the Abkhaza and Ossetians did after Georgia acquired independence 35 years ago (windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2019/05/national-traitors-in-moscow-in-2004.html).
But Turkish influence has been growing in recent years, with Turkish businessmen dominating the economy and visiting Turkish officials behaving as if they were already in power there, developments that have worried Georgians and also Turkic peoples on the former Soviet space concerned about Ankara’s intentions.
According to one commentator, “the internet is full of articles about the "creeping annexation" of Adjara. But they are outdated. The annexation has effectively already happened. Real power in the region lies with Turkish businessmen and the Turkish clergy. And if things do not go according to plan, Turkish security officials will step in” (asia24.media/news/ankara-ne-sprashivaet-kak-tbilisi-molcha-teryaet-adzhariyu/).
Such judgments will only further inflame the situation and may create a new problem for Georgia and for adjoining states in the south Caucasus, especially as it moves to become a major east-west transit bridge, with Turkey seeking to expand its role and other countries, Russia in the first instance using its influence to try to block that.
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