Putin Advisor Says Ukrainians on Course to Disappear as a Nation by End of This Century

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Sept. 6 – Anton Kobyakov, an advisor to Vladimir Putin, says that Ukraine has passed “the point of no return” as far as demography is concerned and will “die out” by the end of this century unless something changes dramatically, adding that in his view, “only Russia can save that country.”

            Kobaykov’s view, aired at the Eastern Economic Forum and one likely shared by the Russian president reflects demographic data that some Ukrainian scholars are now discussing (fondsk.ru/news/2026/09/06/ukraincy-mogut-vymeret-kak-dinozavry-dazhe-esli-voennyy-konflikt-prekratitsya).

            These experts have focused on the fact that the number of children entering first year of school has fallen dramatically, a trend Kyiv explains by the decline in birthrates as a result of the war and the move of many Ukrainian families abroad to escape the violence of the Russian invasion.

            Those reasons may explain much of the reason for the decline. Ukrainian economist Oleksiy Kushch says that the number of children entering first classes this year is 45 percent lower than was the case in the 2013/2014 school year and that the country’s overall fertility rate has fallen from 1.51 to 0.9 children per woman per lifetime.

            That figure is below the overall Russian Federation fertility rate of 1.3 and even below that of the rate in major Russian cities, which now stands at 1.0. And it is far below the replacement level that requires women of childbearing age to have approximately 2.2 children.

            But the Ukrainian figures set the stage for the appearance of progressively smaller cohorts of Ukrainian women of prime childbearing age who are also on course to have ever fewer children.  According to some Russian commentators, that would mean there would only be two to three million Ukrainians left by the end of this century.

            Such longterm demographic projections are notoriously inaccurate given that changes can and do take place over time. But these are especially worrisome not only because they highlight a major challenge Kyiv will have to face but also because they likely underscore decision making in the Kremlin about Ukraine.