Paul Goble
Staunton, Oct. 17 – The drying up of the Caspian Sea as a result of climate change and increased human use has already reduced container shipping across that body of water between Central Asia and the Caucasus and could end it altogether by 2028 unless the littoral countries begin massive dredging campaigns to keep the sea lanes open.
That conclusion is suggested by a new World Bank study which urges such dredging lest the sea stop being and east-west trade bridge and become instead an obstacle to such trade and has been played up by Moscow commentators as a reason countries should avoid the middle corridor route and instead send such trade through Russia.
(For the World Bank study which was released at the end of September, see worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2026/09/28/trans-caspian-transport-corridor-investments-spur-growth-and-create-millions-jobs; for Russian interpretations of it, see bugin.info/detail/vostochnyi-ekspress-24-tr/ru.)
Moscow writers have highlighted the study’s conclusion that four major Caspian ports – Aktau, Kuryka, Baku and Turkmenbashi – have already been silted up to the point that they can handle only about half of the container cargo they were dealing with and that if things continue, within a year or two, they will have to stop handling such cargo entirely.
Not surprisingly, the Russian commentators don’t mention the Russian ports, although the World Bank study does, and thus they downplay the impact of global warming and increased human use of water on those ports and the ability of Russia to continue and expand north-south trade with Iran.
Clearly, what the World Bank would like to see is a massive dredging effort, something that is possible but will be enormously expensive, almost certainly requiring not only spending by the littoral states most immediately affected but also by countries further afield who hope to use the Caspian as part of the Middle corridor.
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