Paul Goble
Staunton, Nov. 13 – Vladimir Putin, 74, is surrounded in the Russian leadership by people who are within the range of being five years older or five years younger than he is and knows that for his system to survive his own passing, he needs to rejuvenate the top ranks of the Russian government, Vladimir Pastukhov and Nikolay Petrov say.
In a 33page report for the New Eurasian Strategy Center, the two outline Putin’s thinking and what he has already done to implement a change in generations but not a change in thinking in Russia (nestcentre.org/transition-without-a-successor/; summarized at ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/11/13/tranzit-2030-ili-smena-pokolenii-putinskoi-eliti-a211261).
The details are important, but what is even more significant is that this report sends a warning to those who think that Putin’s passing will be the end of Putinism as such. What the Kremlin dictator has done is to install younger people in positions near the top who share his vision and can be counted on to carry it out even after he passes from the scene.
Of course, some of them will change their tune when Putin dies; but many are those of Putiin and those close to him in age. If he succeeds in making all the changes that Pastukhov and Petrov point to, it will be extremely difficult to extricate Russia from the Putinist mold he has put in place.
The big questions are whether he has the time and whether those opposed to what Putin has done understand the scope of the challenge ahead of them. If Russia is to change, it will require not just the departure of Putin from the scene but the wholesale replacement of those he has installed to continue to carry out his will.
At present, unfortunately, most of those who talk about the future are not yet focused on just what that means and how difficult it will be; and consequently, they aren’t making the kind of plans that will replace not just Putin and the Putinists of his generation but the Putinists of the next he is putting in place.
No comments:
Post a Comment