Paul
Goble
Staunton, November 28 – One of the
most unfortunate inheritances the Russian Federation has received from the
Soviet Union is the nearly universal notion that any official who is ousted
from a position by his superiors cannot hope to play an active political role
in the future.
As a result, officials then and to a
large extent still often desperately have tried to retain their position lest
they become non-persons and thus lose their inviolability to prosecution and
their ability to protect their relatives and closest friends, a struggle that
leaves politics more a zero-sum game than it is in Western democracies.
But a new study prepared by the
Petersburg Politics Foundation released today provides some evidence that this
may be changing at least at the level of governors and that those ousted
sometimes can and do remain extremely popular and thus have the opportunity to
resume a prominent role either in political life or in the economy.
That study, which is described in an
article in today’s “Kommersant” (which also includes a hypertext link to the
original document, considered the fate of 94 heads of federal subjects who were
replaced over the last decade and provides both specific data on each and
certain generalizations about the group as well (www.kommersant.ru/doc/2077519).
Seven have died,
four are under investigation, but only 24 of the 83 others have disappeared
from public view, the usual fates of ex-officials in the past. Eleven, the study says, have the chance to
return to active politics in their regions, while nine have moved into the
corporate world. Only 14 still live in
the regions they once headed, while 48 are in Moscow.
The return of these former governors
to public life would, the study concludes, “significantly enliven political
life in the regions,” a life that has become duller given the absence of
“bright and passionate figures.” And for
some of them, who continue to enjoy popularity, such a return is at least a
possibility.
Mikhail Vinogradov, the lead investigator, told “Kommersant” that
“the investigation showed that a significant portion of the ex-governors remain
political figures and as a rule preserve their influence on regional politics. About a third of them,” he said, “will take
direct or indirect part” in future elections.”
Another analyst, Aleksandr Kynyev
was less optimistic about the return of the former governors to office. Some may do so but “everything will depend on
the format of the voting … If there will be a repetition of what we saw on
October 14,then there are very few chances that some of the former governors
will even run.”
But the paper said, the political
scientist “did not exclude that ‘if the federal center moves toward a definite
liberalization of the gubernatorial elections,” then some of these “former”
people will return. While Kynyev doesn’t
say so, that may be one of the most important reasons why there is unlikely to
be the liberalization of which he speaks
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