Staunton, April 20 – Gas pipeline
issues have attracted far more attention, but a plan for a unified energy
network among European Union members appears likely to have serious
consequences for Kaliningrad, the non-contiguous Russian exclave that is bordered
by Poland and Lithuania, both of whom are EU members, according to “Nezavisimaya
gazeta.”
In a lead article today, the paper’s
editors say that the EU plans “threaten not only to block the supply of Russian
gas to Europe but to isolate in terms of energy the Russian exclave in the EU
of Kaliningrad oblast” by breaking apart the electric grid between Russia and the
EU at its borders (ng.ru/editorial/2015-04-20/2_red.html).
“The unification of the electric
grids of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia with the European one and, as a result,
the exclusion of Kaliningrad oblast from the Baltic energy system can lead to a
lack of electricity in this strategic section of Russian territory,” the
editors say. At the very least, that
risk will heighten tensions between Moscow and Brussels.
Until now, Estonia, Latvia, and
Lithuania have been part of the BRELL energy network which includes Belarus and
Russia as well. (Intriguingly, this is a rare case when Moscow has followed the
English alphabet order rather than the Russian one in listing the Baltic
countries.) Now, the three, moving toward Europe, are breaking ties with Russia
and Belarus as well.
The Moscow paper places the blame
for this move on Latvia which since January has been head of the Council of
Europe and has pushed for a variety of measures to reduce its own dependence on
Russia and the dependence of its neighbors as well.
But if this EU plan is implemented,
Kaliningrad will be cut off and suffer serious power shortages, something that
will hit its naval port there and thus “inflict harm on the security of the
Russian state,” the editors of “Nezavisimaya gazeta” say. Moscow officials are
clearly concerned about how to respond.
Last week, Energy Minister Aleksandr
Novak said that “the problem of energy supplies for Kaliningrad oblast will be
solved by the end of this year,” primarily by sending more gas to the exclave
and building new generating capacity there. Although he did not allude to it,
the paper said Moscow may restart construction of the Baltic Atomic Power Plant
in Kaliningrad.
The Russian authorities have a
certain amount of time to take these steps, the paper says, noting that the
difficulties of setting up this EU grid mean that it will not be fully
operational until at least 2020 and possibly not until 2025. To achieve “energy independence” for
Kaliningrad will be a very expensive proposition, the paper said.
The prospect that Kaliningrad may
face serious power shortages in the future is likely to energize those in the
oblast who would like to see it as an independent “fourth Baltic republic” or
at least linked to the EU as a Euro-region of some kind. And that in turn means
that the exclave is likely to be the site of more demonstrations in favor of
such outcomes.
They are already happening. “Nezavisimaya
gazeta” reports today that persons unknown put up banners in Lithuanian at
border crossing points in Kaliningrad reading “Welcome to Karaliavicius [the
Lithuanian variant of “Koenigsberg]!” (ng.ru/regions/2015-04-20/6_kaliningrad.html).
The exclave’s police are looking for
the perpetrators, but few find it easy to believe that local Lithuanians did
this. They number 10,000, fewer than one
percent of Kaliningrad oblast’s population, and “have not displayed any signs
of political activity” during the post-Soviet period, the paper says.
But it notes that “the return of
Crimea to Russia has called forth calls to ‘deal with Kaliningrad oblast’ not
only from the ultra-nationalists of the Young Lithuania Party but also from the
right-of-center parliamentary opposition.”
And calls for the return of this region have been discussed on social
networks.
The notion of changing borders in
the Baltic region has also surfaced in the past among some Russian activists in
Kaliningrad and elsewhere who would like to see Kaliningrad’s boundaries be
expanded to where they were before 1923 and include Memel, as the Lithuanian
city of Klaipeda was then known.
But some bloggers in Kaliningrad think
that all this is not about Kaliningrad but rather a Russian provocation
designed as the opening shot in a Russian “campaign for the struggle with ‘the
Lithuanian threat.” At the very least,
that is a real possibility and should be considered in terms of Moscow’s active
measures against the three Baltic states.
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