Paul
Goble
Staunton, September 2 – Despite all
the other means that Moscow employs to transform elections in Russia into
farces, the Central Election Commission has come up with a gerrymander scheme
in which rural voters, Putin’s primary constituency, will be put in districts
with urban ones, the more anti-Putin group, and thus reduce the influence of
the latter.
Were the lines to be drawn otherwise
and follow administrative divisions, pro-Putin candidates would likely get higher
percentages of the vote in rural areas, but they would receive lower
percentages in urban areas and might even in some cases lose. Assuming the
Commission’s plan is adopted, that won’t be as likely to happen.
In today’s “Kommersant,” journalists
Irina Nagornykh and Vsevolod Inyutin say that a copy of the proposed
redistricting proposal shows that the capitals of the federation subjects in
almost every case have been divided into several districts with rural
populations added to each to make the total number of voters in each roughly
equal (kommersant.ru/doc/2801209).
They report that the Central
Election Commission and the Presidential Administration say that “such
districts are more representative and equal,” but “representatives of the opposition
say that this [drawing of lines] is a means of struggle against protest votes.”
The latter appear
to have the better argument given that the joining together of urban and rural
voters in the new districts constitutes “the chief innovation” of the map of
225 single-member districts which had to be drawn because of the restoration of
such voting and because the law specifies these districts “cannot include
territories of various subjects of the federation.”
According
to “Kontinent,” the plan calls for Saratov, Barnaul, Novosibirsk,
Yekaterinburg, and Volgograd to be divided into four districts each with rural
voters added in all of them. Kazan, Kemerovo, Simferopol, and Rostov-na-Donu
are divided in three, and Nizhny Novgorod is divided into five districts.
The
only federal subject capital not subject to this treatment is Belgorod.
Officials say that this is because that oblast is not divided in the same way
as others. Opposition groups speculate that it is because Belgorod city and
oblast are among the most traditional and loyalist of Russia’s regions.
Moscow
first tried out this system of gerrymandering, Nagornykh and Inyutin say, in
Ufa, Penza and Tula after the 2011 Duma elections when the center was reacting
to the rise of “’angry urban residents’” and sought to dilute their influence
on legislative bodies by adding rural voters to what had been exclusively urban
districts.
Officials
in the Presidential Administration insist that combing urban and rural areas
will not only make the elections more representative but will limit the ability
of rural officials to use “administrative” resources to get their way. These
officials thus present this gerrymandering as a good governance measure.
Opposition
figures don’t see it that way. They view it as an attempt to undercut the ties
they have to existing constituencies and to reduce the percentage of voters
likely to support them as opposed to the party of power. The Presidential
Administration says that the new arrangement has been cleared with all
parliamentary parties, but spokesman for several say that is not true.
Consequently,
debates about this plan are likely to be intense, something some observers are
likely to view as evidence of the strength of democracy in Russia but that
others are likely to conclude provides support for exactly the opposite
conclusion.
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