Paul
Goble
Staunton, September 4 – The Soviet regime
collapsed because of its technological backwardness, something that intensified
over time despite its efforts to overcome this lag. The Putin regime will
collapse for a similar reason and perhaps more quickly because it is doing
everything it can to create an anti-scientific and anti-technological society, Yuliya
Latynina says.
Many people are inclined to name the
Afghan war as “one of the causes of the collapse of the USSR,” the “Novaya
gazeta” columnist writes, “but a no less serious cause was the Lebanese war of
1982” when Israeli planes destroyed Soviet MIGs highlighting the inability of
Soviet military technology to compete (novayagazeta.ru/columns/69780.html).
Still more disastrous for the USSR were
advances in information technology, she says, given that “the entire ideology
of the USSR presupposed a state monopoly on information.” By the end, video
cameras and copying machines had made this “physically impossible.” And that is
shown by the fact that “the regime fell apart not from below but from above.”
“The majority in the USSR in 1985 as
before believed that there was mass unemployment in America and that they
linched Negores there.” But the elite knew better, and while they didn’t care
about the Negroes, by the 1980s, its members “knew very well that [the Soviet
elite] lived an order of magnitude worse than the elite of the West.”
It is indicative, Latynina says,
that “current Kremlin policies takes all these circumstances into account.
Thus, the Kremlin did not and does not intend to begin an open conventional war
[because] it understands very well that it would be impossible for it to win
such a conflict.”
The same thing goes for a monopoly
of information. Putin’s regime has “in principle” rejected “the Soviet rule of
a complete monopoly on information,” given that “in the age of computers and
the internet, this is in principle unrealizable.” Instead, it seeks “only a monopoly on
propaganda” which affects the majority “but not all.”
Moreover, it has changed the
thematics of its propaganda. Unlike the Soviets who claimed “we ourselves are
the most advanced and most developed,” Russian propaganda now acknowledges that
things aren’t so good, given that it can’t hide that fact, but asserts that “on
the other hand we are spiritual.”
And finally and importantly, “one of
the main characteristics of the existing regime is that the higher ups are
provided with an extraordinarily high level of consumption,” even though the
population as a whole is not. “In Russia now, there is a very wealthy top and a
very poor people.”
But despite this, Latynina argues,
unceasing technological progress cannot be stopped and Putin’s regime will
ultimately fall as its Soviet predecessor did. It “cannot compete with an open
society” and consequently it will fall “in the final analysis as a result of
its total technological backwardness.”
Latynina notes that “technical
progress is impossible to predict,” but she gives as an example of how it will
work against Russia in the medical area. Suppose Western medicine comes up with
a way to extend the life of its populations from 70-80 years now to as much as
120 years.
Russian elites will want to have the
same, but “it will be much more difficult to purchase a long life than it is to
buy an I-phone.” That is because medical
technology in Russia is far behind that of medical technology in the West where
it has become a factory that works 24/7 to produce health. That requires trained personnel as well as
advanced equipment. Russia will find it hard to find either.
Regardless of what field technological
breakthroughs occur, Latynina says, these breakthroughs won’t happen in Russia because
“the Kremlin’s entire policy is directed at the creation in Russia of an
anti-scientific and anti-technological society.” As a result, Russia will fall
further and further behind.
“If the USSR tried to surpass the
West,” it produced an elite which had to know about the West and that became
its grave digger, Latynina says. “The current Kremlin, taking this lesson into
account, is trying to act so that neither contemporary science nor contemporary
technology will exist in the country” on the assumption that “the fewer independently
thinking people,” the more secure it will be.
But by avoiding “one danger, the
presence of a thinking elite,” it is leading the country into “a dead end, that
of technological backwardness, and not abstract backwardness” but a kind that
will “again make its life an order lover in quality than people with an
analogous social status in the West.”
Once again, it will be the Russian
elites who will undermine and then destroy the Putin state. They will not be
satisfied to live only 80 years, for example, if they see that their
counterparts in the West are living to 120.
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