Putin
Will Use Terrorist Attack on Plane Against Ukraine, Piontkovsky Says
Paul
Goble
Staunton, November 7 – Just as
Vladimir Putin used the apartment bombings in Russian cities in 1999 to restart
the Chechen war and bring himself to power, so too, again needing a war to keep
his position, the Kremlin leader will exploit the terrorist plane bombing of
the plane to expand Russia’s presence abroad and isolate Ukraine, according to
Andrey Piontkovsky.
The Russian commentator says that
the threat now facing Ukraine is not an escalation of the fighting in the
Donbas – Putin knows what that would mean and he is focusing on the Middle East
– but rather the certainty that the Russian leader will use the terrorist act to
cause the West to back off from its support of Kyiv (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=563CADA0450CC).
In
the first instance, Piontkovsky says, Putin will “seek to use the airliner
catastrophe as the occasion for a sharp increase of Russia’s military presence
in the Middle East.” And he will follow
the same script he did 16 years ago.
“In
September 1999, it was simply not possible to begin a war in Chechnya which
brought Putin to power,” the Russian analyst continues. “The memory of the
first Chechen war was too great.” And consequently, Putin exploited – and in
the view of many, although Piontkovsky does not take a position on this orchestrated
– the apartment bombings.
Now,
once again, Putin “needs a war in order to hold on to power, and the terrorist
act in the Sinai gives him the chance to intensify military hysteria and
thereby remove from society any brakes” on his actions. That logic points to a
rapid expansion in Russia’s military presence in the Middle East.
It
might seem that “Ukraine should only breathe a sigh of relief in connection
with such a turn of events,” Piontkovsky says, but that is absolutely
incorrect. That is because Putin will
seek to sell Russia’s expanded military action in the Middle East as “his
service to the West” and demand the West recognize Ukraine as part of Russia’s sphere
of influence and end sanctions.
Putin
will make the following argument to the US and the EU: You may be afraid of
fighting ISIS in a serious way by sending land forces, but I am not, even if it
costs many Russian lives. And because I will, the Kremlin leader will argue, you
should lift sanctions and “in general weaken your support for Ukraine.”
Many in Western capitals will find
that a powerful argument, Piontkovsky says, and thus Putin’s plans “represent a
definite danger for Ukraine.” Indeed, if
Putin really starts a war against ISIS, that could lead to Putin’s return to “the
club of the big bosses” and even a new Yalta or Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact.
But Putin has not thought this all
the way through, the Russian analyst argues.
More than 220 Russian casualties have already come home in coffins, and the Kremlin leader has made the Sunni Muslim world his enemy by his
support for the Shiites of Syria and Iran. Consequently, even if he “wins” in
his gamble to get support from the West on Ukraine, he will lose in the longer
term.
Putin knows that “Russians will die
for his lifetime personal power” if they think they are fighting against those
who have killed Russians. But ultimately, neither he nor they can win against
the Sunni radicals; and ISIS will eventually “accept the capitulation of Putin
on more severe conditions than did [Chechnya’s[ Kadyrov.”
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