Putin Will Use Terrorist Attack on Plane Against Ukraine, Piontkovsky Says
Staunton, November 7 – Just as Vladimir Putin used the apartment bombings in Russian cities in 1999 to restart the Chechen war and bring himself to power, so too, again needing a war to keep his position, the Kremlin leader will exploit the terrorist plane bombing of the plane to expand Russia’s presence abroad and isolate Ukraine, according to Andrey Piontkovsky.
The Russian commentator says that the threat now facing Ukraine is not an escalation of the fighting in the Donbas – Putin knows what that would mean and he is focusing on the Middle East – but rather the certainty that the Russian leader will use the terrorist act to cause the West to back off from its support of Kyiv (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=563CADA0450CC
Many in Western capitals will find that a powerful argument, Piontkovsky says, and thus Putin’s plans “represent a definite danger for Ukraine.” Indeed, if Putin really starts a war against ISIS, that could lead to Putin’s return to “the club of the big bosses” and even a new Yalta or Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact.
But Putin has not thought this all the way through, the Russian analyst argues. More than 220 Russian casualties have already come home in coffins, and the Kremlin leader has made the Sunni Muslim world his enemy by his support for the Shiites of Syria and Iran. Consequently, even if he “wins” in his gamble to get support from the West on Ukraine, he will lose in the longer term.
Putin knows that “Russians will die for his lifetime personal power” if they think they are fighting against those who have killed Russians. But ultimately, neither he nor they can win against the Sunni radicals; and ISIS will eventually “accept the capitulation of Putin on more severe conditions than did [Chechnya’s[ Kadyrov.”