Paul
Goble
Staunton, October 13 – Central Asian
gastarbeiters in Russia are likely to be among the first foreigners to serve in
the Russian military in Syria, now that Vladimir Putin has opened the way for that,
a development that will allow Moscow to address three problems at one and the same
time.
First of all, the Central Asians,
most of whom are Sunni, will provide reinforcements for that religious trend
against the Shiites in Syria; and their presence will further muddy the waters
as to who is serving whom in that conflict by giving Moscow plausible
deniability (windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2017/10/putin-comes-up-with-another-way-to-hide.html).
Yekaterina Sokiryanskaya, a
specialist on the Caucasus at the International Crisis Group, tells Anton
Chablin that she believes that Putin’s action is all about Syria. It won’t lead
to a significant increase in fighters there, but it will give Moscow more
flexibility there and elsewhere (svpressa.ru/war21/article/183457/).
“It is important
to strengthen the Sunni presence” in Syria, she says; and “people from Central
Asia” are predominantly Sunni and will fill that bill. Moreover, Sokiryanskaya adds, the Central
Asians will be enthusiastic about fighting against ISIS and gaining access to
the pursuit of a military career in Russia.
That view is echoed as well
by Abdullo Davlatov, the former head of the Union of Tajikistanis of Russia,
who has declared that he is “certain” the migrants from Central Asia “will
willingly fight in the ranks of the Russian Army in against the militants of the
Islamic State (govoritmoskva.ru/news/137489/).
Second, it will help solve Moscow’s
own military manpower problems occasioned by its demographic crisis. And third, it will please both Russians who
will be glad to see the gastarbeiters take on this burden and the gastarbeiters
as well by offering them higher pay and a path to Russian citizenship, as both
Sokriyanskaya and Davlatov suggest.
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