Paul Goble
Staunton,
August 22 – If Moscow raises the pension age to the levels it plans, Aleksandr
Potyaev says, “the outflow of people from the Russian Far East,” already large,
“will become even larger,” yet another unintended consequence of Putin’s plans
that will leave that region without enough people to hold it for the center.
Potyaev,
head of the Trans-Baikal Union of Journalists, says that it is essential that
Russia keep the current retirement ages in place, “at least for three years”
because given the changes elsewhere, that would “attract labor resources to the
Far East and stop outmigration” (regnum.ru/news/economy/2468614.html).
In reporting Potyaev’s argument,
Regnum’s Aleksandr Deyneka points out that the Transbaikal is in worse shape
that most other regions of the country. “There is no production at all, the
standard of living is extremely low, there is no work, wages are small, and
people are leaving the kray.” And that
is in the cities.
In the villages, he continues, “the
situation is still more difficult, people receive 4,000 to 5,000 rubles (60 to
70 US dollars) a month.” And consequently, they will try to move to other
regions in order to get a larger pension and the possibility of earning more
money by means of second jobs.
The Kremlin has adopted a variety of
policies to get Russians to move to the Far East, and it will certainly be
concerned that collateral damage from its pension plans will further undercut
these largely unsuccessful efforts. But Moscow faces a Hobson’s choice: if it
does what Siberians would like, other regions will make a similar argument.
If it doesn’t – and that is far and
away the more likely outcome – then the numbers of Russians in the population
beyond the Urals will sink still faster – and the ethnic balance will shift
away from them in the direction of immigrant Chinese and gastarbeiters from
Central Asia. And because of both these
trends, regionalists are likely to win ever more support.
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