Paul Goble
Staunton,
December 24 – If Moscow wants to expand its aggression in Ukraine, it will
easily find a “formal” justification for this because both Russia and Ukraine
are prepared for “an escalation of military action” between them, according to
independent Russian military analyst Pavel Felgengauer.
He
made his comments to Ukraine’s Gordon news agency in response to those of Kurt
Volker, the US special representative on Ukraine, who said that Russia “needed
an occasion for aggression” (gordonua.com/news/war/felgengauer-k-voyne-seychas-gotovy-vse-i-rossiya-i-ukraina-606756.html).
Whether there will be “a winter war”
or not remains to be seen, Felgengauer says; but “the possibility exists” given
the concentration of forces on both sides.
“Thus, the escalation of the conflict is not excluded. But if this doesn’t
happen before the end of January, it means that there will not be a winter
campaign.”
Given the poor state of roads in the
Donbass, the best times for launching an attack are either in the summer when drought
makes the roads passable or in the winter when freezing weather does the same
thing, the military analyst says. He adds
that a Russian attack via the Sea of Azov is improbable given that its shallow
waters create difficulties for the Russian fleet.
If Russia wants to start a new wave
of aggression, Felgengauer says, it will not be difficult for it to find an
occasion. That raises tensions on both
sides, especially given that it isn’t clear whether Moscow will use regular
forces or hybrid ones as it has in the course of earlier moves against Ukraine.
What
makes things especially worrisome, the military analyst says, is that Russian
officials, like foreign ministry spokesperson Mariya Zakharova have been
suggesting that Kyiv is preparation “provocations in the Donbass,” exactly the
kind of thing Moscow accuses others of
doing before it does so itself.
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