‘If Government Won’t Help Us, We Don’t Owe It Anything,’ Russians Increasingly Say

Paul Goble

            Staunton, December 12 – There has been a sea change in Russian attitudes toward the powers that be over the last six months, one captured by the now oft-heard observation that “if the government won’t help us, we don’t owe it anything in return,” according to a new study which predicts more protests and more protest voting in the year ahead.

            The study, entitled “The Protest Space in Russia: Forms and Practice,” was prepared by the Moscow Institute for Regional Expertise and has now been summarized by URA news agency journalists Yevgeny Padanov and Stanislav Zakharkin who argue that it shows the emergence of “a new political reality” (ura.news/articles/1036277050).

            Before 2008, there was a social contract based on the state giving Russians with a higher standard of living in exchange for political loyalty. But now, that contract has dissolved, the report says. “Today’s Russia has a new political reality,” one characterized by “a lowering of paternalistic attitudes” and by “disappointment in the functioning of government institutions.”

            This has happened, the report says, because of the intensification of various social problems, including a declining standard of living, the crisis in education and health care and environmental issues. This year, the pension reform, the increase in the VAT, and gas price rises added to them.”

            “Under these conditions,” the report continues, “the population is ready to vote practically for any candidate capable of aggregating protest attitudes and often simply against the powers that be,” as happened in three federal subjects in September. “In 2019, the list of regions with such a result could increase in length.”

            But these attitudes are going to be reflected not just in elections but also in a growth in the number of street protests. Independent urban activists will play a key role, given that regional branches of the parties aren’t currently capable of responding to the shifts in popular attitudes. And thus “’extra-systemic players’” will play a growing role.

            Among the focal points of protest, the report suggests, will be socio-economic, ethnic, and environmental issues.

            All this is happening because “the powers that be are ignoring the dissatisfaction of society and are not able to communicate with the population: Declarations like ‘macaroni always costs the same’ or ‘the state didn’t ask you to be born’ are viewed by a significant number of people as evidence of a complete break of bureaucrats with reality and of an extreme cynicism.”

            That only intensifies social unhappiness with the current system.

            If the powers that be try to use only administrative measures to keep people in line, the report concludes, that will be taken by an ever-growing number of Russians as evidence that the powers that be are inadequate to the job of running the country.