Russians Seek to Live Apart from Regime or to Emigrate rather than to Oppose Putinism, Shapovalova Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Oct. 16 – Those who are horrified by the Putin regime, which is now at its apogee, Marina Shapovalova says, need to disabuse themselves of two mistaken notions, the idea that the majority of Russians blindly support him out of love or that they are ready to seek his replacement by someone else with a different policy.

            Instead, the Russian commentator says, those who do oppose the regime must recognize that the Russian people no longer love Putin but instead of opposing him, something dangerous because of his free use of police power, have adopted the traditional Russian approach of seeking to get out from under his rule.

            In tsarist times, Russians to Siberia; but today, they either emigrate or seek to live in ways independent of the state or at least below the state’s radar screen as the best ways to maintain themselves without the obvious risks of opposition, the Russian commentator writes in Gorod 812 (gorod-812.ru/utrambovannyj-monolit-strategiya-vyzhivaniya-v-rossii/).

            The Putin regime benefits not only from its use of police powers but also from the way in which Russians perceive the current international system, Shapovalova says. They see an international community that is unwilling to go after Putin directly but instead takes actions that hurt them instead.

            As a result, the image of the West which many had at the end of Soviet times, as a model and liberator has been replaced by a view of the West as something opposed to Russia as such. In that situation, rocking the boat inside Russia makes no sense because any instability would simply work to the benefit of those who Russians believe want to destroy them.

            The average Russian thus “clearly feels the senselessness and danger of any active resistance to the regime in its current state,” Shapovalova continues. “This is not the Belarus of Lukashenka … It is already not 2011 in the Russian Federation.” Instead, it is a place where it makes “good sense” to keep one’s head down or to leave but not to resist openly.

            “There is no ‘genetic slavery’ in the people; there is only good sense,” she argues.

            Exit either via emigration or keeping one’s head down is “our perspective for the coming decade or even more,” Shapovalova continues. What this means is that the people will increasingly live apart from the regime, not challenging it but also not providing it with the kind of support the rulers seek.

            The only thing that could change this would be the departure of Putin, a development some in the regime may be prepared to take risks to achieve but that few if any in the population are prepared to do the same given the near certainty that they would lose more than they would be likely to gain.

            Shapovalova concludes her essay by insisting that her words are “not a defeatist manifesto. It is simply necessary to see reality as it is. Especially if your personal strategy presupposes resistance. It is better for you and those close to you if you find means adequate to the threat” and not build your hopes on false assumptions about the people and the powers.