Paul Goble
Staunton, Oct. 22 – Russia’s fertility rate is approximately where Europe’s is, but its mortality rate is far higher. And because no modern country has had much success in boosting the former, Russia should be focusing on reducing the latter if it is prevent the country’s total population from continuing to decline, Russian demographers say.
Unfortunately, they add, the Russian government has focused almost exclusively on boosting birthrates, something it thinks it can do, and continues to ignore reducing mortality rates by improving medical care and lifestyle choices (holod.media/2024/10/16/k-2100-godu-budet-menshe-100-millionov/).
Aby Shukyurov says that in fact, Russia’s birthrate “might be fine” given that it is an increasingly urban and modern society; but its “mortality rate is anything but.” The former is “comparable to Europes’s” but its mortality rate is far higher. Moreover, cardiovascular diseases rather than cancer remain the primary cause of death in contrast to Europe.
Dmitry Zakotyansky points out that economic inequality is a major contributing factor to Russia’s low life expectancy, with as many as 40 percent of all Russians living in poverty, continuing to smoke and drink heavily and are more likely to be involved in or affected by crime, all of which are things the government could but isn’t addressing.
Both demographers say that Russia’s demographic situation has been affected by the war in Ukraine given that according to some estimates, 120,000 Russian soldiers have died there and 400,000 more have suffered injuries which are likely to shorten their life expectancies. Again the regime could end that conflict and improve the country’s demography.
Indeed, their arguments imply that all the Kremlin’s talk about boosting the birthrate is first and foremost a smokescreen to conceal its almost complete unwillingness to address mortality issues, precisely the area where state intervention could be far more effective in improving Russia’s demographic future.
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