Ukraine’s Population, 42 Million in 2022 and 36 Million Now, Projected to Fall to 25 Million in 2051, Kyiv Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Oct. 2 – The Ukrainian government has approved a demographic strategy for the next 15 years that says the population of the country was 42 million at the time of the launch of the expanded Russian invasion in February 2022, has fallen to 35.8 million now, and will likely continue to decline to 25.2 million in 2051.

            Of the 35.8 million Kyiv counts as Ukrainian citizens now, 31.1 million live in areas controlled by the Ukrainian government rather than those occupied by Russian forces (kmu.gov.ua/npas/pro-skhvalennia-stratehii-demohrafichnoho-rozvytku-ukrainy-na-period-do-2040-roku-922r-300924).

            The figures the Ukrainian government cites come from the National Academy of Sciences which says that the decline reflects both excessive deaths over births and outmigration and that it began long before the Russian invasion. In 2001, the Academy notes, Ukraine had a population of 48.5 million. 

            That means that the population of Ukraine will have fallen by almost half between the beginning of this century and its mid-point and possibly if the Russian occupation continues by more than half, something that may further reduce Ukraine's ability to resist Russian aggression and its international weight.