Russia and China Both Competing and Cooperating in Central Asia, Dankov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Oct. 22 – Most commentaries on the roles Russia and China are playing seek to declare either that one country is dominant at the expense of the other or that the two are cooperating across the board, Artyom Danov says. But neither of those judgments is supported by the facts on the ground which show the two both competing and cooperating.

            The historian at Tomsk State University says Russian officials must recognize this reality before they try to draw up plans for Moscow’s future action in Central Asia (asia24.media/main/-tendentsiya-kotoruyu-ne-zamechayut-u-kitaya-rost-vneshnetorgovogo-oborota-so-stranami-tsentralnoy-a/).

            Danov suggests that Russia and China currently interact in four distinct areas and that in each of these there are examples of cooperation as well as cases of competition. Consequently, it is a mistake to draw any overarching conclusions, especially as the situation is changing so quickly.

            The first area is trade. There China has seen its trade rapidly increase over the last decade while Russia has seen its trade fall. This is particularly worrisome, the Tomsk historian says because trade between Russia and the countries of Central Asia has fallen on account of declines in the export of Russian goods to the region. In many cases, China is replacing Russia.

            The second area is political cooperation. The countries of the region have five plus one relations with Moscow and five plus one ties with China as well as other countries. What they don’t have is five plus two, with Russia and China the two. It would be in the interests of both for them to promote such an arrangement.

            The third area is the cultural and humanitarian sphere. There Russia has an overwhelming advantage as far as language training is concerned, but China is catching up there and also expanding into popular culture, displacing Russian culture and the influence it has traditionally had.

            And the furth area is cooperation on security. “China isn’t dominating in this area,” Dankov says; “but it appeared on the arms and military technology market in Central Asia in the last decade,” whereas Russia had been there by itself earlier. Many in Moscow view this as threatening, but it is time to ask whether the two can cooperate in the security sphere.