Paul Goble
Staunton, Oct. 4 – Kyiv does not need to retake all the territory currently occupied by Russian forces to defeat Moscow, Igor Eidman says. It need only force Moscow to pursue total mobilization, something the Putin regime is incapable of carrying out and then Russia will collapse and Ukraine will win the war.
Pro-Kremlin figures like Aleksey Chadayev and Ruslan Pukhov are already making what may seem this counter-intuitive argument (discred.ru/2024/10/01/aleksej-chadaev-kak-povysit-uroven-grazhdanskoj-mobilizatsii/ and opinions.glavred.info/chem-opasen-zahvat-rossiyanami-ugledara-rossiyanami-10601951.html), the Berlin-based Russian analyst points out (t.me/igoreidman/1758 reposted at charter97.org/ru/news/2024/10/5/613374/).
In the words of Chadayev, “both the Romanov and the Soviet systems looked as if they were much stronger and more balanced than the current post-perestroika Russian Federation, knit together on a living thread, and yet both loudly collapsed. What makes us consider the current one more stable than both of them” if it tries to mobilize fully?
And in those of Pukhov, “excessive mobilization of the population can lead to an increase in socio-economic tension, which can undermine internal political stability, which in turn poses a threat to the unity of the country and its integrity.” To avoid this, Putin has not taken that step and instead has tried to convince Russians that their normal lives can continue without interruption.
But as Eidman observes, “the continuation of military operations makes the mobilization of society necessary and its full involvement in the war.” As Chadayev adds, “an excessive level of civic mobilization will not allow us to win the war and even to simply allow us to continue to carry it out.”
The Kremlin finds itself in a zugzwang, a chess term which means that any move the Putin regime makes is almost certain to make things worse, with the further mobilization of the population being one of the worst but most likely choices the Kremlin leader may ultimately be forced to make if Ukraine understands the nature of the situation.
The Russian people, Eidman argues, are “not ready to leave ‘the warm bath of complacency for the cold trench of the stress of war, and the ruling elite is not ready to sacrifice its interests for the sake of war, such as giving up the opportunity to continue to steal as much as it is now.”
Putin recognizes this. After all, as Eidman notes, “the first wave of mobilization and the traumatic war stress in 2022-23 almost ended with the collapse of the system during the Priogozhin putsch. Since that time, the population and elite have calmed down and relaxed again. Any new wave of mobilization and stress will have larger and more dangerous consequences.”
The question has to be asked: “How will the Kremlin pass between the Scylla of total war which it is not ready to conduct and the Charybdis of defeat?” One piece of evidence pointing to this is that “it is becoming increasingly difficult and expensive to buy contract workers.” Another is that the military industrial complex can’t find enough workers at any price.
“The X hour, when you will inevitably have to make a choice in favor of the mobilization model or abandon the specter of victory, and therefore suffer defeat, is approaching,” Eidman argues. “Depending on the intensity of hostilities, it may occur either next year, or even at the end of this year.”
According to the Berlin-based Russian analyst, “the Kremlin is urgently trying to get away from this losing choice; and being unable to mobilize his society, it is trying to demobilize the Ukrainian one” by exploiting “the natural fatigue of Ukrainians” by suggesting Putin is ready for compromise.
Ukrainians must not fall for this nonsense, Eidman concludes. Instead, they must take steps so that Putin will make the mistake that will bring down his regime and his country and allow Ukraine to win.
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