A Putin Declaration of Victory in Ukraine will Entail Even Worse Consequences for Russia than His Decision to Invade It, Chernyshov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Oct. 5 – Because he has never specified exactly what a Russian victory in Ukraine would look like, Putin can at almost any point declare victory, Sergey Chernyshov says; and his doing so will have even worse and more fateful consequences for Russia than would a genuine Russian loss.

            If Putin does make such a declaration, the Radio Liberty commentator says, the Russian people will see themselves as victors and be even less willing to demand any changes from the leader who was responsible for this “victory” (sibreal.org/a/sergey-chernyshov-o-tom-chto-delat-esli-putin-pobedit-v-voyne/33146353.html).

            And consequently, “the day when Putin declares his victory will become much more tragic for the future of Russia but not Ukraine than was February 24” when he announced his expanded invasion. If Russia loses and admits as much, then change will come; but if Russia claims victory, change becomes much less likely.

            What is important here, Chernyshov stresses, is that “Russian society and the Russian state having come to believe in its victory will not even degrade. Not, both will return to their normal state, which arose as a result of the selective policy of the Bolsheviks during the 20^th century.”

            And that means this: “If anyone ever believed that a genuine democratization and liberalization of the country took place in the 1990s, that will be exclusively his problem and not a problem for Russia which essentialy as remained exactly as it was fifty and even eighty years ago.”

            After such a declaration of victory, it won’t be plausible to divide the regime and the population because the people like the powers will “with joy believe that it has won.” Those who oppose Putin and his war need to recognize this and recognize that when Putin does declare victory they will be truly isolated.

            Unfortunately, Chernyshov says, the Russian opposition has thought a lot about what to do if Russia loses and is forced to admit that it has; but it has done little or nothing to think about what it must do if Putin declares a victory however fraudulent that claim is.  And yet the opposition and Russia needs just such a plan.

            The commentator suggests that what may be required is to come to view the Russian diaspora as a saving remnant that will be able to keep alive the best in the nation’s traditions until a time will come when the aftermath of such a Putin declaration of “victory” may pass and new possibilities will open up once again.