Kazakhstan Facing Mounting But Often Unrecognized Demographic Problems

Paul Goble

            Staunton, May 13 – “Kazakhstan is simultaneously facing the effects of declining birthrates, population aging, and a widening gap between the educational system and labor market needs,” according to Igor Klevtsov, a Kazakhstan journalist who writes for The Times of Central Asia.

            That Central Asian country’s overall fertility rate has fallen to 2.57 children per woman per lifetime, still above the replacement level of 2.2; but the rate in the northern portion of the country has already fallen below that to 1.63 to 1.75, Klevtsov says government statistics show (timesca.com/kazakhstans-demographic-shift-puts-labor-market-under-strain/).

            For the time being, Kazakhstan’s population is still growing given rising life expectancy and relatively low mortality rates among the working age cohort; but the share of that group has fallen from 64 percent to 57.7 percent over the last decade, a trend that means each worker must support for elderly and more children than before.

            Another impact of Kazakhstan’s demographic shifts is that in some regions, especially the north, employers are facing labor shortages, especially in agriculture and manufacturing, while universities are producing people who are choosing to go into the service sector thus reducing the development of a modern middle class.

            Consequently, Klevtsov says, even though unemployment remains low and the population continues to grow, demographic difficulties like these are placing increasing constraints on what Astana can do now and in the future.