Staunton, November 18 -- The flood of news stories from a country as large,
diverse and strange as the Russian Federation often appears to be is far too
large for anyone to keep up with. But there needs to be a way to mark those
which can’t be discussed in detail but which are too indicative of broader
developments to ignore.
Consequently, Windows on Eurasia presents a selection of 13 of these other and
typically neglected stories at the end of each week. This is the 58th such
compilation. It is only suggestive and far from complete – indeed, once again,
one could have put out such a listing every day -- but perhaps one or more of
these stories will prove of broader interest.
1. Putin’s Rating Falls as Russians Trust Their Own Eyes
More and His TV Less.
Polls show that Vladimir Putin’s rating is falling even though it remains high relative
to other Russian institutions and international standards (ng.ru/ng_politics/2016-11-15/9_6859_rating.html). Some of the decline appears to reflect the
feeling many Russians have that their country is already a world power and
should not think more about its own problems than those of other countries (levada.ru/2016/11/14/obraz-rossii-na-mezhdunarodnoj-arene/).
But another and related reason is that polls show that Russians have ever less
trust in the chief prop of the Putin regime, government controlled television
and news outlets (newizv.ru/society/2016-11-18/249209-govorjat-ne-vsju-pravdu.html
and ria.ru/society/20161114/1481312362.html). They are beginning to trust Internet news
more but still by a margin of more than two to one, Russians say they favor
censoring the Internet (interfax.ru/russia/537503).
2.
Can Russia Afford
Putin’s Foreign Policy for Much Longer? There are increasing indications that
Russia can’t afford Putin’s aggressive foreign policy for the long term. Its
military now is seeking the right to use draftees in Syria, something the
Kremlin leader earlier promised would be unnecessary but presumably feels
compelled to do because it can’t afford to hire enough professional soldiers to
do the job (rufabula.com/news/2016/11/16/military). And Moscow can’t find
anyone willing to build a military base on the Ukrainian border even after
boosting the amount it was willing to pay, an indication that Russian firms
fear they won’t be paid if they build it (gordonua.com/news/worldnews/stoimost-voennoy-bazy-rf-u-granicy-s-ukrainoy-vyrosla-v-poltora-raza-159515.html). One consequence of this lack of cash is that
the Kremlin is increasingly turning to public relations, a much less expensive
tool, to advance its interests. Among the examples of this in the last ten days
are a foreign ministry call to make Russian an official language in all former
Soviet republics, a demand that the US rescind the Captive Nations Week
resolution, efforts to ban anti-Trump songs in Scandinavia, and promotion of
ideas like California separatism (regnum.ru/news/polit/2206462.html,
dsnews.ua/world/kreml-raskachivaet-lodku-amerikantsev-pugayut-kaliforniyskoy-11112016161000,
beregrus.ru/?p=8302 and thebarentsobserver.com/en/civil-society-and-media/2016/11/no-punk-prayer-borderland-after-pressure-putins-diplomats).
All too many people in Russia and the West see such bombast as a sign of
Russian strength; in fact, it is almost certainly an indication of Russian
weakness.
3.
Russian Economy
Now So Bad That Russians are Losing Faith in the Future. Every day brings
fresh indications that the Russian economy under Vladimir Putin is disastrous
now and will become more disastrous in the future. The World Bank says half of
Russians are now at risk of falling into poverty (themoscowtimes.com/news/half-of-russians-risk-poverty-says-world-bank-56064), and polls show that three out of four Russians say
they are already suffering (rufabula.com/news/2016/11/16/crisis). Surveys also show the faith
Russians have in the future is rapidly slipping away (tvrain.ru/teleshow/vedomosti_na_dozhde/kak_rossijane_gotovjatsja_k_dolgomu_krizisu-421252/). Among other bad news
stories this week are the following: Britain has now passed Russia as the
second biggest arms exporter (independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/britain-is-now-the-second-biggest-arms-dealer-in-the-world-a7225351.html),
Russian gols and silver production are down sharply (regnum.ru/news/economy/2206467.html),
poor Russians are now selling themselves as marriage partners to immigrants who
want to gain permanent residence status in Russia (ng.ru/economics/2016-11-17/4_6861_passport.html), Russia is now the largest
economy in the world that doesn’t produce its own machine tools (newsland.com/community/2100/content/rossiia-stala-krupneishei-stranoi-mira-importiruiushchei-stanki/5558393), hidden forms of slavery
are spreading throughout the Russian Federation (meduza.io/feature/2016/11/17/18-tysyach-rubley-za-cheloveka), Moscow may soon have
shortages of gasoline (regnum.ru/news/economy/2207002.html),
Transbaikal officials announce they are cutting all social subsidies except for
funerals (forum-msk.org/material/news/12490647.html), and Moscow is making it easier for people to
declare bankruptcy (newizv.ru/economics/2016-11-16/249154-prinjat-zakon-o-snizhenii-poshliny-dlja-fizlic-za-zajavlenie-o-bankrotstve.html). Not surprisingly, Russia has slipped to 56th
position in the world happiness scale (zhartun.me/2016/11/happiness.html).
Two new steps under consideration may push its ranking down further: Some in
Moscow want to create a day of destroyed products to commemorate losses from
the Kremlin’s countersanctions actions (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=5829793B3D9E8),
and more immediately, the government may impose new taxes on champagne just
before New Year’s (agregator.pro/v-gosdume-neozhidanno-reshili-povyisit-aktsizyi-na.5497005.html).
4.
Under Lenin
Portrait, Officials Find One of Nicholas II – and Other Dispatches from
Monument Wars.
If one needed a symbol of the problems the Kremlin faces with its promotion of
monuments as a way of distracting Russians from their problems, it surfaced
this week when officials discovered that under a portrait of Vladimir Lenin was
a picture of Tsar Nicholas II (polit.ru/news/2016/11/17/ps_portraits/). But that was far from the only dispatch from
this Russian front. Among the others:
activists in Khabarovsk want to put up a monument to animals victimized by Russians
(regnum.ru/news/society/2206940.html), others are calling for
a statue of Baty Khan (obozrevatel.com/abroad/96402-nevzorov-predlozhil-postavit-v-rossii-pamyatnik-hanu-batyiyu.htm),
activists are calling for Putin to defend a memorial to Rasputin in Tsarskoye (ruskline.ru/analitika/2016/11/17/ruki_proch_ot_poklonnogo_kresta_v_aleksandrovskom_parke_carskogo_sela/), people in Nizhny
Novgorod want to erect a memorial to Boris Nemtsov (niann.ru/?id=500813), vandals have desecrated
the Kolchak plaque in St. Petersburg (rusk.ru/newsdata.php?idar=76469), Russians begin thinking
about Lenin’s brutal suppression of Tambov uprising now that Moscow has made
the Tambov wolf a symbol for 2017 (lenta.ru/news/2016/11/16/volk/
and blog.victimsofcommunism.org/while-lenin-is-celebrated-his-victims-are-forgotten/),
Ryazan residents want to rename Godless Street for Donald Trump (newizv.ru/society/2016-11-14/249011-zhiteli-rjazani-predlozhili-pereimenovat-ulicu-bezbozhnuju-v-ulicu-trampa.html),
Vladimir Zhirinovsky wants St. Petersburg to be called Petrograd once again (newsland.com/community/politic/content/zhirinovskii-predlozhil-pereimenovat-sankt-peterburg/5549998),
and vandals turn a Soviet symbol into Spongebob’s Patrick in Voronezh (themoscowtimes.com/news/russian-vandals-turn-soviet-star-into-spongebobs-patrick-56095). But perhaps the biggest proposal for new
monuments is one that is calling on Moscow to erect statues of Aleksandr Nevsky
along the border of Russia to defend the country (news.rambler.ru/lifestyle/35260183-vdol-granits-rf-ustanovyat-pamyatniki-aleksandru-nevskomu/).
As Russia heads into the centenary year of the 1917 revolutions, such monument
battles will only heat up further.
5. Would You Like an Americano, a
Rusiano or a Cossackino? Medvedev Gets in Trouble Again.
Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has landed in trouble again for one of his
off-hand remarks. He joked recently that Russians should stop calling ordinary
coffee Americano and call it instead Rusiano (themoscowtimes.com/news/russias-prime-minister-says-eurasia-should-call-it-rusiano-coffee-not-americano-56180). He may have intended
that as a joke, but some Russian outlets have taken him seriously, prompting
much humor on Russian social networks (newsland.com/community/6106/content/bar-v-ekaterinburge-pereimenoval-kofe-amerikano-v-russiano-po-sovetu-medvedeva/5557782). But the damage hasn’t
been limited to that: a Cossack group in St. Petersburg now wants people to
call a coffee its group offers “Kazachino” and has applied for a patent on that
(nazaccent.ru/content/22402-peterburgskie-kazaki-zapatentuyut-recept-kazachino.html).
Other groups are likely to follow.
6.
Moscow
Patriarchate Blesses Revival of State Terrorism But May Become Its Victim. A
Russian activist says that the Moscow Patriarchate has effectively blessed the
revival of state terrorism in Putin’s Russia by its uncritical support for what
the Kremlin has been doing (portal-credo.ru/site/?act=authority&id=2222). That may come back to
haunt the church itself: One of its officials has gone so far as to call on the
Kremlin to use the methods of the late 1930s against dissenters in the church,
a move that would be unlikely to stop with just those Patriarch Kirill doesn’t
like (portal-credo.ru/site/?act=monitor&id=24895).
7.
Putin Regime
Increasingly Uses ‘Deniables’ to Do Its Dirty Work. One of the most
troubling developments in Putin’s Russia in recent months has been the Kremlin’s
increasing proclivity to use groups that are nominally not part of the state
but that in fact are controlled by it to attack its enemies or even, as in the
North Caucasus, to kill them. Bellona has complained about regime provocateurs
who come to meetings to undermine the environmental movement (bellona.ru/2016/11/17/provokatory/). And rights activists in
the North Caucasus say that such regime “deniables” form the core of death
squads being used against Moscow’s opponents there (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=582C6C7986CF7).
8.
Now that
Russian Internet is Less Free than Zimbabwe’s, Cossacks will Defend It. Russia
has now fallen below Zimbabwe in terms of Internet freedom (snob.ru/selected/entry/116547 and
themoscowtimes.com/news/russia-slips-again-in-internet-freedom-ranking-56132). It may slip further now that the
Cossacks have been given a new task by Moscow officials: to defend the Internet
against unwelcome Western influence (nazaccent.ru/content/22363-kazachi-kiberdruzhiny-poyavyatsya-v-rossii.html).
9.
Ethnic
Clans at War in Moscow. Violence within, among and by
ethnic mafias in Moscow has been given more attention again in the Russian
media, although it is far from clear whether there has been a real uptick in
their activities or whether the powers that be simply want to play up
xenophobia now that the boost they received from annexing Crimea appears to be
wearing off (m.rosbalt.ru/moscow/2016/11/13/1566451.html
and rod-pravo.org/azerbajdzhanskaya-mafiya-podminaet-pod-sebya-moskvu-i-podmoskove/).
10.
Russian Women Dying
from Domestic Violence as Duma Debates How Husbands Should Beat Them. One Russian
woman now dies every 40 minutes as a result of domestic abuse. It is far from
clear whether that the situation will improve if the Duma adopts a proposed law
on how Russian men should beat their wives in accords with Russian national
traditions (intersectionproject.eu/article/society/russian-family-tyranny-domostroy-20).
11. HIV/AIDS and Other STDs Experiencing Explosive Growth across
Russia. Sexually
transmitted diseases are growing at explosive rates across Russia, even though
Moscow officials have tried to suggest that things are not so bad. One indication of the level of the problem is
that prostitutes in some regions are insisting on engaging only in safe sex and
doctors are being ordered to report on any young people they see who have had
sexual contacts (ura.ru/articles/1036269513, ixtc.org/2016/11/vrachey-obyazhut-soobschat-v-sk-o-podrostkah-zanimayuschihsya-seksom/, demoscope.ru/weekly/013/tema01.php and http://demoscope.ru/weekly/013/tema07.php).
12.
Russians Brew Their Own Moonshine to Avoid
High Prices and Dangerous Surrogates. Moscow has celebrated slight declines in the
amount of alcohol Russians are buying, but those declines do not reflect the
reality of the situation. Not only are some Russians turning to illegal
producers but far more are now purchasing stills and producing their own
moonshine lest they be forced to pay high prices in state stores or risk
getting dangerous and often fatal surrogates from others (ng.ru/economics/2016-11-14/4_6858_alco.html). In this situation, a far better measure of
alcohol consumption is likely to be the amount of sugar Russians are buying and
the price for that basic component of alcoholic production.
13.
Memorial Head Says
Russia Now ‘Center of Evil’ in the World. Ronald Reagan called the Soviet Union “the
evil empire,” but now Sergey Kovalev, the head of the Memorial human rights organization,
suggests that Putin’s Russia has become “the center of evil” in today’s world (lb.ua/news/2016/11/11/350507_predsedatel_rossiyskogo_obshchestva.html).
And six others from countries in
Russia’s neighborhood:
1. NATO Office Closes in Tashkent. In a small but
symbolic indication of the direction things are moving in Eurasia, the Western
alliance has closed its information office in the capital of Uzbekistan (http://www.fergananews.com/articles/9161).
2.
Is
Ukraine Finally Going to Leave the CIS? Even though Russia has invaded Ukraine, Kyiv
has been dissuaded from breaking diplomatic ties with Moscow; and even though
it has suspended most of its ties with the Moscow-dominated CIS, Ukraine still
remains a member. The second of these
may finally be about to change now that the Verkhovna Rada has taken up a bill
to exit the organization of former Soviet republics. If Kyiv does so, the CIS
will have only nine members besides Russia (turantoday.com/2016/11/ukraine-sng-russian-occupation.html
and ng.ru/cis/2016-11-14/1_6858_ukraina.html).
3.
Belarusian
Nobelist’s Works to Be Published in Belarusian. A five-volume collection of the works of
Svetlana Aleksiyevich is now to be published in Minsk, yet another indication of
the growing importance of that language regardless of what Alyaksandr
Lukashenka may say about the role of Russian
there (harter97.org/ru/news/2016/11/15/231153/
and regnum.ru/news/polit/2206497.html).
Meanwhile, another indication of
Belarusian influence has suffered: a
Belarusian cinematographer says he and his colleagues are now responsible for
60 percent of the successful TV films in Moscow (charter97.org/ru/news/2016/11/12/230870/).
4.
Minsk Gets a
Mosque and a Mufti But Not Without a Scandal.
Belarus’ Muslims now have a cathedral mosque in their national capital
and have elected a new mufti (islamio.ru/news/society/samaya_bolshaya_mechet_v_belarusi/). But the
events attended by Muslim and Turkish dignitaries could not pass without
scandal: Alyaksandr Lukashenka offended many when he kissed a Koran (svaboda.org/a/28110729.html).
5.
Moscow Backs Down
from Requiring Ethnic Russians in Baltics Born Since 1992 to Get Visas. One of Moscow’s
most counter-productive (from its own position) and most criticized (by Russian
nationalists and supporters of “the Russian world”) moves regarding the ethnic
Russians in the Baltic countries has now been reversed. The Russian government
will not require ethnic Russians without citizenship in Estonia and Latvia and
who were born since 1992 to get a visa in order to visit Russia (russian.rt.com/ussr/article/332948-rossiya-latviya-estoniya-russkie)/
6.
Are Non-Russian
Countries Now Being Hurt by Lack of Russian or English News Outlets? An Estonian commentator has pointed to a
problem the Baltic countries and former Soviet republics increasingly have. As
the number of Russian language outlets in their countries has declined and the
number of English ones has not increased, he says, many foreign countries are
losing access to accurate information about what is going in them and drawing wild
and incorrect conclusions (news.err.ee/v/58d702eb-2b28-45cc-b698-5fca4454738e#.WClo4jDOehI.facebook).
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