Friday, November 9, 2018

Far More than Three Percent of Russians Think Kremlin Poisoned Skripals, Volkov Says


Paul Goble

            Staunton, November 9 – Moscow media have played up poll results suggesting that only three percent of Russians think that the Kremlin was behind the poisoning of the Skripals in the United Kingdom.  It is entirely possible that that is what those polled said – Russians know the answers the powers that be want – but it is clear that far more actually believe the Kremlin did it.

            That is the conclusion Denis Volkov of the Moscow Carnegie Center draws in an article today recounting his conversations with Russians in informal settings.  “Publicly,” he notes, “the majority of Russians aren’t ready to acknowledge Russian interference in the affairs of other countries” (carnegie.ru/commentary/77678).

            “But in less official conversations, many more people allow that such interference has occurred.” This difference reflects not only the knowledge Russians have of what the Kremlin wants to hear but also their sense that they are “not observers on the side but participants in the information clash between Russia and the West.” 

            It is those calculations rather than the success of Russian government propaganda that explains these differences, Volkov continues; and it is “indicative” that large shares of those sampled refused to give a direct answer, an indication not of the success of propaganda but of their personal understanding of what is required regardless of the facts.

            Focus groups confirm this in the Skripal case and others. Initially Russian participants are reluctant to answer; but as they become more comfortable, they are quite willing first to allow that Moscow may have been behind this or that action in a foreign country and then to suggest that there is no other reasonable explanation.

            Such differences between what Russians will say to pollsters and what they actually believe “can hardly be explained only by the fact that people conceal their opinions because they are afraid of being punished by their superiors,” the Moscow Carnegie Center expert suggests.  As this gap comes out, many Russians respond by laughing at the situation.

            “In other words,” Volkov continues, “a significant number of Russians although they do not want to publicly acknowledge the responsibility of Russia for interference in the affairs of other countries, do not doubt that such interfere really has occurred and do not see any problems with it.

            “Ever more [Russians] today are certain that Russia has again become ‘a great power,’” and they believe that this status must be “periodically confirmed” by actions that would be inappropriate if undertaken by a country lacking that status. Russia must take tough actions, they say, because otherwise the West won’t recognize Russia’s power.
           
            Moreover, he adds, “by violating international norms, [their] country in the opinion of a significant number of people is doing nothing different than what other great powers do: ‘All do these things,’” Russians say.  They also believe that if challenged, Moscow must not back down because to do so would be to show weakness and thus be less than the great power Russia is.

            As a result of this mix of feelings and calculations, “a quite bizarre picture” emerges. “Pubicly the majority of Russians are not ready to admit the interference of hteir country in the affairs of other countries. Formally they share the position which government propaganda adopts” on such things.

            “But in more precise and less official conversations, a much larger number of people allow that such interference has occurred than the polls show.”  At the same time, Volkov says, “this doesn’t mean that they agree with Western evaluations of these events and simply are afraid to declare this publicly.”

            And Volkov concludes: “the majority of Russians consciously reproduce the official version from government propaganda even if they themselves do not believe it is genuine because they feel themselves not as outside observers but as participants” in the battle their country is engaged in with the outside world.

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