Russians who Seek Democracy and Freedom Now have an Ally in New Ukrainian President, Illarionov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, May 7 – Ukrainians voted against war because they do not believe that Kyiv can recover territories occupied by Russia by military means, Andrey Illarionov says; but the biggest winner in the April elections were those Russians who want democracy and freedom. They now have a powerful ally in Vladimir Zelensky.

            In the course of a wide-ranging interview with Alesya Batsman of the Gordon news agency which appeared on Ukrainian television, the Russian commentator makes three key interrelated points (gordonua.com/publications/illarionov-u-znachitelnoy-chasti-rossiyan-poyavilsya-zashchitnik-v-lice-zelenskogo-kotoryy-vyskazyvaet-ih-poziciyu-na-russkom-yazyke-eto-naibolee-effektivnoe-oruzhie-protiv-putina-940321.html).

                First, Illarionov argues, Zelensky won because Ukrainians have concluded that they cannot retake Russian-occupied territories by military force and aren’t going to get the assistance of the West to do so. Anyone who says otherwise, he suggests, is cynically exploiting war psychology is maintain himself in power.

            Second, Russians in Russia who want democracy and freedom see in Zelensky a defender of their interests, not only because he speaks to them in Russian but also because he is prepared to challenge Putin in ways that the Kremlin leader will find it increasingly difficult to respond to without undercutting his own position.

            And third, the evolution of Ukrainian politics in the wake of this election highlights something that has long been known but not always been acknowledged: Ukraine and Russia are so interlinked that unless both succeed in moving toward democracy and freedom, neither will achieve those goals.

            One of the reasons that Ukrainians have drawn the unwelcome conclusion that fighting won’t get them their territory back is the announcement that despite all Kyiv’s military efforts over the last year, Ukraine has recovered less than one-tenth of one percent of the occupied areas, 24 square kilometers of the 25,000 square kilometers Russia controls in the Donbass.

            At that rate, it would take centuries to recover this territory and at a terrible price for Ukraine. Ukrainian voters recognize this reality and they voted for Zelensky in the hopes that he will focus on developing Ukrainian society and the Ukrainian economy rather than obsess about the war itself, Illarionov continues.

            But that doesn’t mean that Zelensky isn’t focusing on Russia. His post-election statements have been directed “not so much at Putin as at Russian citizens,” the Russian commentator says. “He has indicated that today’s Russia is an authoritarian country and not a democracy.”

            “What does a Russian passport offer? What rights does it give? The right to be arrested, to be beaten to lack any representation of its political interests, and the lack of any civic freedoms.” Saying that, Illarionov continues, hits at one of the weakest points in Putin’s political armor.

            Zelensky’s words have elicited from many in Russia both attention and even enthusiasm, the economist continues, even if they are not directly linked to the opposition but because they come directly to them in the Russian language.  “This is the strongest argument and the most effective weapon,” he says.

            Moreover, Illarionov continues, “Zelensky has used the phrase ‘for your freedom and ours,’” a phrase that has been on the banner of all those who have fought for freedom be they “in Ukraine, Russia, Belarus, Poland or Lithuania.”  By doing so, the incoming Ukrainian president “has sent a signal” that has a powerful resonance in Russia today.

             Many thought Ukrainian leaders would adopt that strategy in the immediate wake of the Maidan. That didn’t happen and five years have been lost “both for the future of free Russia and for free Ukraine” because, and this is Illarionov’s third point, the future of the two are inextricably tied together.

            “Ukraine can be a genuinely free, successful and effective country only when Russia becomes a free country.” That may not sound attractive to some Ukrainians, but it is a fact that “the success of Ukraine and the success of Russia are interrelated,” he argues. “We can either win together or lose together.”

            Zelensky appears to understand that. It is the basis of his greatest challenge to Putin – and a reason, Illarionov concludes, for Putin to be worried.