Paul
Goble
Staunton, June 11 – Not surprisingly,
the Russian opposition claimed its protests had forced the weakening Putin
regime to release Ivan Golunov and the Kremlin suggested that what had happened
simply showed once again that there is a good tsar (Vladimir Putin) but unfortunately
bad boyars (lower-ranking officials) and that justice had triumphed.
Neither of these suggestions is
true. Instead, as any number of commentators suggested today, Golunov’s release
was just as arbitrary as his arrest, did not reflect any strengthening of the
opposition or weakening of the regime, but instead was a reprise of past
Kremlin efforts to escape a bad situation of its own making (e.g., kasparov.ru/material.php?id=5D00127B17F7C).
Consequently, there is no reason to
conclude that the regime is on its last legs or the opposition is in a position
to force change. Instead, as other commentators pointed out, this is a one-off
action, the regime will continue as it has repressing those it wants do and retreating
only if it thinks that is its interests so it can take undeserved credit and repress
others more easily.
(For some commentaries making these
points, see ura.news/articles/1036278267,
rosbalt.ru/posts/2019/06/11/1786434.html,
rosbalt.ru/blogs/2019/06/11/1786401.html,
rosbalt.ru/posts/2019/06/11/1786460.html,
echo.msk.ru/blog/karina_orlova/2443591-echo/
and kasparov.ru/material.php?id=5CFFF1AA2895C.)
Perhaps the most thoughtful comment
came from Olga Romanova who pointed out that the Golunov case represented the Putin
regime at its most typical and showed that no one is going to be able to change
his system. The only worthwhile goal is to destroy it completely and put a
different one in its place (ehorussia.com/new/node/18658).
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