Paul
Goble
Staunton, August 2 – One measure of
social distance among different ethno-national communities is the propensity of
their members to intermarry. In Soviet
times, communist officials pointed to an increase in the number of ethnically “mixed”
marriages as a measure of the success of Moscow’s nationality policy.
Since 1991, the share of
inter-ethnic marriages has declined in many places after rising in the previous
decades. Data from Kazakhstan show this clearly. In 1959, 14.4 percent of all
marriages were between members of different nations and by 1989, 23.9 percent
of them were (camonitor.kz/33446-mezhetnicheskie-braki-dostoyanie-respubliki-ili-ugroza-nacionalnoy-bezopasnosti.html).
But in the post-Soviet period, the
share of such marriages has declined, to 21.4 percent in 1999, 18.8 percent in
2005, and 15.5 percent during the period 2013-2017. Historian Nurtayev
Mustafayev says this trend is likely to continue. Kazakhs “do not want to marry
representatives of other nationalities,” and representatives of others “aren’t
seeking to marry Kazakhs.”
According to him, “the contraction
in the number of inter-ethnic marriages is a very clear indicator of growing
ethnic (inter-ethnic) distance. This means that in [Kazakhstan] alienation
between people of different nationalities is growing. This trend toward the
reduction of ethnic multiplicity will continue.”
Despite that, Nurtayev says, “in the
foreseeable future, until the middle of the 21st century (and no one
can knowns what will happen later) Kazakhstan will remain poly-ethnic.” That
almost certainly true, but it has not stilled questions in the Kazakh media
like “Do the Russians have a Future in Kazakhstan?” (camonitor.kz/33445-est-li-u-russkih-buduschee-v-kazahstane.html).
At least some have doubts.
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