Paul
Goble
Staunton, September 29 – Of the five
littoral states which agreed to the Caspian convention in Aktau in August 2018,
only one – Iran – has not ratified it, a reflection of domestic issues there
but one that is making some in Moscow and other regional capitals nervous
because until Tehran acts, the convention does not enter into force.
In a commentary for the Rhythm of
Eurasia portal, Zamir Karazhanov says that Iran might not ratify the
convention next year as most had expected because increasing radicalization among
the population over US sanctions means that the radicals may gain in the parliament
and be unwilling to approve an agreement they view as a sell-out of Iranian
interests.
Since the delimitation accord was
signed, Iranian radicals have denounced the government for accepting
arrangements under which Tehran gets only 11 percent of the sea’s area instead
of the 50 percent that they view as its right (ritmeurasia.org/news--2019-09-29--chetvero-pjatogo-zhdut-poslednjaja-tochka-v-kaspijskoj-konvencii-za-iranom-45131).
The current Iranian government
remains committed to the Caspian agreement largely because it excludes the possibility
that non-littoral states can insert their ships on the sea and because it
eliminates some of the uncertainty over who owns the resources there by
specifying that they belong to the five littoral countries.
Iran’s parliamentary elections are
scheduled for February 21. The government won’t seek ratification before that,
Karazhanov says. If it retains its parliamentary majority, Tehran may move
quickly to approve the convention; but if it loses it, something increasing
radicalization makes increasingly likely, it won’t.
That is hardly the end of the story,
the Rhythm of Eurasia writer says. The Iranian government remains
supportive of the agreement and it could simply wait until a more propitious
time, perhaps “even years from now.”
From the point of view of the littoral states, he continues, “the most
important thing is that [Iran] not withdraw its signature from the Convention.”
That doesn’t appear likely anytime
soon, Karazhanov says; but the failure of Iran to act soon, a failure that the Eurasian
analyst clearly blames on the US for stepping up pressure on Iran and radicalizing
Iranians, will mean that the uncertainty many thought the agreement had put an end to in fact is
going to continue for some time more.
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