Paul
Goble
Staunton, December 26 – Thirty years
ago, the greatest fear among many Western leaders was that the Soviet Union
might fall apart into chaos and become, in the words of former US Secretary of
State James Baker, “a Yugoslavia with nukes.” Now, Archpriest Vsevolod Chaplin
says that there is a real risk that in 2020, Russia will come apart like Yugoslavia
or Iraq.
Because of what he describes as “a
lack of will” on the part of the Kremlin and an unwillingness to face up to the
need for serious reforms, the outspoken and independent Russian churchman says,
“sooner or later this will end with revolution” with that leading to a Yugoslav
or Iraqi outcome (newdaynews.ru/moskow/679912.html).
“The powers that be and elites live
in their own illusory world, surrounded by restrictive mechanisms,” he says; “but
these mechanisms if there is no public discussion and “new blood” will weaken
and collapse.” Everything now depends on one man whose professional background
means he isn’t showing his hand.
He will either act or not act, Chaplin
continues, but both scenarios are “manipulative” and thus “immoral.” What is
needed is a consultation with the people, rather than some trick like a snap
presidential election. Putin must serve
out his term and not spend all his time thinking about how to prepare a
successor or stay in power himself.
The situation Russia faces in
foreign policy is even more dire, the archpriest suggests. “We naively counted
on the kindness of the West and in the idea that in exchange for concessions we
would get a lifting of sanctions. But this is also a disastrous path: the West
is our natural and eternal competitor and concessions will only lead to more pressure”
from it.
Saddam Husseyn and Slobodan
Milosevic made similar miscalculations. Russia must respond to pressure from
the West by “an aggressive policy” reflecting “a strategic vision.” Only in that way can Moscow hope to be
successful. Hoping for the West to be nice is the height of naivete.
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