Staunton, December 29 – The past year has been one in which “all the trends which arose in earlier years continued,” and therefore we are entitled to conclude that “the main result of 2019 in Russia was the absence of any results” even as the system continues to degrade economically, socially and politically, Anatoly Nesmiyan says.
That combination makes the future development of events obvious in that with ever fewer resources, there will be ever greater struggles over them and the results will be ever more negative for most, with the likelihood of an explosion on the part of the rest ever more likely (t.me/nesmijan/2254 reposted at rusmonitor.com/anatolij-nesmiyan-glavnym-itogom-2019-goda-v-rossii-yavlyaetsya-otsutstvie-lyubyh-itogov.html).
“In this sense,” the Moscow commentator says, “2019 became a continuation of the previous years, one without the slightest attempt at resolving the underlying problem. We enter the last year of the second decade with the very same contradictions of a year ago but at a lower level. This apparently is too be called ‘stability.’”
This situation may continue for a time in an inertial way, but with ever fewer resources, it cannot continue forever. At some point, there will be unanswerable demands for fundamental change, leading to a revolutionary situation because those in power have proved themselves incapable of action and incapable of responding to the demands of the people.
And this scenario which will occur even if the regime tries to continue everything as it now is will lead to the rise of “one single question: the question of the future of the enormous territory” now within the borders of the Russian Federation.
“Will it remain united (then the struggle will be conducted on the basis of the principles of the organization of administration in it – centralized, federal or confederal) or will the disintegration of the country take place and then have to be established principally new relations with the surrounding space” and concerned outside powers.
It is difficult to say whether this will be the outcome of 2020, Nesmiyan continues. “By all signs, very little time remains; [and] the powers that be understand this.” That is reflected in their increasing tendency to focus only on the shortest of short-term issues – nothing beyond 2024 – and ignore deeper and longer-lasting problems and trends.