Current Crisis in Russia Reflects Failure of Powers to Adjust to New Realities, Nisnevich Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, April 9 – What is happening in Russia during the coronavirus is to a certain extent predictable: the center is operating according to its traditional rules and raising gas prices rather than lowering them as they should and allowing the regions to act more or less as they want, something reginal elites are only too pleased to do, Yuliy Nisnevich says.

            The Higher School of Economics political scientist argues that all this is the result of the feudalization of power in the country, a process that has been going on for some time but has been exacerbated by the coronavirus and the resulting economic crisis (newizv.ru/article/general/09-04-2020/yuliy-nisnevich-haos-v-strane-vyzvan-feodalizatsiey-vlasti).

            But this process is creating ever more serious problems: raising retail gas prices when wholesale prices are falling is infuriating Russians, and it won’t be easy to rein in the regional leaders after the crisis passes because what has happened has “unbalanced” the system and could easily lead to chaos.

            Those at the top of the system continue to work according “to their former logic: their task is to collect money. They cannot get out of this logic.” And they won’t subsidize the population because they only know how to collect. They will only change if someone shows them that they could lose power if they don’t.

            Regional officials by their independent actions are pleasing the population, Nisnevich says. “Imagine you live in a backwoods Tula village. Your governor decides not to allow products to leave the region or vile Muscovites who spread to the virus to come in. His support will only grow.”

            But in the center, “the powers are playing the games they are accustomed to play without understanding that the social situation has very sharply changed and one must not play according to the old rules,” the political scientist says. 

            The regime comforts itself with the high ratings that its pollsters report, but those ratings are exaggerated. Russians don’t tell those taking such surveys the truth, and the levels the latter report are simply far higher than in reality. There is a downward trend even among them, but that downward trend is occurring at levels far lower than the Kremlin thinks.

            “The actual statistics are doubtful, but sociology does reflect the trends,” Nisnevich says. “If the rating [of the president] falls or grows, then it falls or grows in reality. This does not mean that the rating was 70 percent yesterday and 65 percent now. It is possible that it was 40 percent and has become 35 percent.”

            In his interview, the political scientist says that the Kremlin has to go ahead with the referendum on the constitutional amendments at some point because it has no choice. But at present, he says, those in power don’t know when they should schedule it, holding it soon so people will remember how to vote or delaying so Moscow can claim victory over the virus.