Paul
Goble
Staunton, May 14 – Over the last
decade, in order to maintain its power, the Kremlin has worked consistently to
destroy Russia’s emerging middle class, an action Vladimir Putin believes
allows him to retain power but one that is putting the entire country “on the
brink of a social explosion,” Russian analyst Dmitry Milin says.
It has long been common ground that
a large middle class whose incomes are not dependent on the state is the basis
for political stability, he points out. That is confirmed indirectly by the
fact that as globalization has intensified income inequality and reduced the size
of the middle class in many countries, they have become more populist and
unstable.
“But only in Russia has the state
itself begun the destruction” of the middle class that economic growth in the first
decade of this century gave rise to, a middle class whose protests against
election falsifications in 2011 so frightened Putin that he adopted a course
directed at its destruction (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=5EBCDC1E21589).
“Putin’s fears for his power led to a
chain of political mistakes which have led Russia to its present situation,”
Milin continues. He could have adopted a
different tack, presented himself as the leader of the middle class as well as
the entire country, and even involved opposition figures one way or another in
the government.
Instead, the Kremlin leader sought
to destroy the creative class which he and his administration viewed as a threat,
driving some into emigration, marginalizing others but radicalizing yet a third
group. His desire to eliminate the middle class was a major factor in its re-statification
of the economy which led to the stagnation of the last decade.
But it also explains his attack on
pensions and his increase in taxes, both of which were intended to leave less
space for the middle class and make those who had been part of it dependent and
fearful government employees. The lower reaches of the middle class were thus
pushed into poverty, and only its top strata remained middle class worthy of
the name.
The result is that now, under
conditions of the pandemic and the economic crisis, Milin says, “our government
finds itself in a situation in which it does not have a majority of the population
that can survive for two or three months without income” and at the same time
has no wish to support this group financially.
The upshot is that by defeating the
middle class, the Kremlin has achieved exactly the opposite outcome it hoped
for: it faces the prospect of a social explosion this summer, one that may be broad
enough to seriously challenge its policies if not yet its personnel.
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