For Russia, August Often a Turning Point in the Country’s Political History, Trunov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, August 1 – Bad and fateful things have happened in every month of the year in Russia, but in recent decades, journalist Roman Trunov says, they seem to have occurred more frequently in August than in any other; and consequently, many Russians expect that some turning point may occur again in this month this year.

            For Russians today, the idea of a fateful August begins with August 1991 when the coup against Gorbachev and a new union treaty collapsed and the Soviet Union soon followed, the journalist says.  But five years later, August was the time of the Khasavyurt agreement that came to symbolize Russia’s loss in the first Chechen war (rosbalt.ru/blogs/2020/08/01/1855625.html).

            Two years later, in August 1996, Russia suffered its default; and a year after that, Vladimir Putin began his ascent to supreme power by crushing the invasion of militants led by Basayev and Khattab into Daghestan.  But after he became president, August has not worked out nearly as well for him.

            In 2000 alone, there was the bombing in Pushkin Saure, the fire at Ostankino, and the sinking of the Kursk, all in the month of August. Then for some years, it appeared that Putin had finally escaped the curse of Russian Augusts. But last year, protests in Moscow reached their apogee on August 10 with the largest demonstration since 2011-2013.

            This August has the potential to be even more fateful, Trunov says. The Khabarovsk protests are not only continuing but spreading. But even more important, they have sent a clear message that “spontaneous risings can break out practically in any place and at any time,” keeping everyone on edge and making the situation that much more explosive.

            And there are possibilities for foreign policy disasters as well: After all, the Belarusian presidential election is on August 9; and Moscow may respond to it in ways that will have a greater impact on Russia itself than on its western neighbor.

            “Any autocrat,” Trunov concludes, “tries with all his strength to convince the population under him of the uniqueness of his despotic power.” Over time, he typically manages to convince himself of the same thing and makes mistakes as a result. But history shows that “almost each of them has a fatal August in his future.”

            Is August 2020 going to be Putin’s?