Paul
Goble
Staunton, August 9 – As the Khabarovsk
protests enter their second month – they began on July 9 – their most important
aspect is not their size and longevity but rather the way in which they are
leading residents of other regions to focus not merely on their local
situations and Moscow but at developments in others, Mikhail Vinogradov says.
The president of the Petersburg
Politics Foundation says that “as a rule, residents of one region do not follow
the agenda in other subjects of the Federation and do not understand the nature
of protests elsewhere.” They focus on
their own problems and on Moscow. But now, with the Khabarovsk events, that is
changing (ng.ru/politics/2020-08-09/3_7932_khabarovsk.html).
And that shift in attention will
have serious consequences for the political system as a whole. In the past,
Moscow has been able to set the agenda without any serious challenge from the
regions because it could always count on the objections from one not spreading
to others, Vinogradov says. But now that is changing.
Moscow isn’t providing a clear
alternative narrative, and the regions are filling the void. Moreover, because
the center does not yet view Khabarovsk as a serious threat, it is not seeking
to crush it but only limit the size of and reporting about demonstrations
there. This is only working in part, and
Khabarovsk is attracting attention in other regions even if not in Moscow.
Darya Garmonenko of Nezavisimaya
gazeta spoke with three other expert observers about the meaning of the Khabarovsk
events for the regions and for Russia as a whole. Aleksey Makarkin says that the Kremlin doesn’t
see the protests as a political threat to itself or its participants as anything
but violators of the law.
It won’t do anything to legitimate them by
negotiating or making obvious concessions, but it also won’t crack down because
the local police are apparently in many cases on the side of those in the streets
and the Kremlin doesn’t want to suffer the consequences elsewhere of bringing
in outsiders, the Moscow political analyst continues.
As long as there is no linkup
between Khabarovsk and political groups in Moscow, the center is likely to
continue its current course, counting on time alone to wear out the protesters
and lead to the collapse of these demonstrations. But Khabarovsk shows
something worrisome for the powers: “Russians can protest, and the powers don’t
know” where they will do so next.
Sergey Obukhov, head of the KPRF’s
analytic center, says that the length of the protests in Khabarovsk is
unprecedented as is the shift in demands from the original issue to the broader
political ones of how the country should proceed. According to the communist analyst, “the
protest is becoming redder and more left-wing.”
The Kremlin in response has stepped
up its efforts to keep communist and social justice candidates out of the September
election, clearly fearful that they could benefit from the anger the people of
Khabarovsk have shown and that others undoubtedly feel, Obukhov continues. But
that shows just how difficult it is for the Kremlin to maintain control and
manage the transition.
And Aleksey Kurtov, head of the Russian
Association of Political Consultants, adds that “the political character” of
Khabarovsk is “obvious even though there are no slogans.” But at the same time,
he says there are “no prospects for the federalization of protest” because
conditions are not yet ripe.
In fact, he suggests, “the further
fate of the protest will depend on the authorities: if they continue to ignore
the protest, it will eventually stop, but if they respond harshly, then this
could hit the entire country.” That pattern in and of itself, Kurtov says,
shows that “new forms” of relations between the powers and the people need to
be developed and soon.
“If however, the powers continue to
ignore the aspirations of society, that alone will be fraught” with serious
consequences for the future, the analyst concludes.
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