Talk about a Future Russian Federation ‘Putting Cart before the Horse,’ Vintsevskaya Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, June 18 – Those who talk about what a future Russian Federation will look like or draw maps about which regions will be part of it or what new national borders will exist are “putting the cart before the horse,” according to Tatyana Vintsevskaya, a Siberian analyst now living in emigration.

            Creating a genuine federation would be a good thing, she continues. But most of those talking about it now are doing so from a Muscovite perspective, making conclusions about and drawing lines around places where they have never been and certainly do not know (region.expert/will-or-not/).

            But that is only part of the problem, Vintsevskaya continues. Russia has never had a real federation. The Constituent Assembly announced plans for one but the Soviets perverted that. Under the term “federation,” they created several national republics but “the majority of ‘Russian’ oblasts did not get any federative self-administration.”

            Moreover, those who oppose federalism now come at it from two opposite poles. The imperialists view federal arrangements as a halfway house or worse toward disintegration, and the nationalists see it as a way of holding them under Moscow’s control rather than allowing them to be free to run their own affairs.

            Which spaces will become part of a federation and what that will mean is not something analysts are in a position to decide, at least not yet. For the present, it would be better to think about how to create elected regional parliaments who could then make decisions about such matters.

            History presents a potential model for that: “In 1990, in all union and autonomous republics, power passed from ‘the first secretaries’ assigned by Moscow to Supreme Soviets elected in their place. Can we repeat that?” she asks rhetorically. And can we make sure that this time there won’t be any backsliding?

            In thinking about this, those who would like to see democracy and federalism need to stop being distracted by two ideas that currently distract people from essentials. On the one hand, many assume that Moscow’s possession of nuclear weapons preclude moves in this direction, forgetting of course that Moscow had nukes in 1991 and that didn’t keep the USSR together.

            And on the other hand, many believe that any moves toward disintegration or federation will lead to a new war of all against all. But what is happening in Ukraine shows that the international system is committed to the stability of borders, both those which currently exist and those which may emerge in the future.