Staunton, Apr. 4 – Most discussions about whether members of the elite will come together to oust Vladimir Putin focus on Putin and his policies along, Abbas Gallyamov says; but given Putin’s age and his increasing ties to reactionaries like Nikolay Patrushev, many must see that ousting Putin now is the only way to prevent the triumph of Black Hundreds politicians.
If members of the elite around Putin recognize that danger, the former Putin speechwriter says, they will undoubtedly find it easier “to organize a conspiracy” because it won’t be about Putin alone but about the kind of policies that his successors, given his advancing age, will bring (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=642BC730AD1CE).
Everyone needs to remember and understand that “neither the Kovalchuks, Sobyanin, Medvedev, Mishustin or Kiriyenko swore allegiance to the Patrushev clan, and none of them have any obligations toward it, while all of them understand that if Patrushev comes to power, dark times will come for them as well.”
Soviet history provides a clear lesson in this regard, Gallyamov says. What began as a hunt for real opponents of Stalin ended with the destruction of all. And thus, under a Patrushev-Sechin regime, the new powers that be will begin to oust anyone who ever shook hands with a Western politician at least once in the 1990s and said something positive about democracy.”
Given such a recognition, Gallyamov continues, “a conspiracy may be framed less as an attempt to overthrow a rule who is on his way out anyway than a desire to block an unacceptable successor. After all, Putin himself has long encouraged the hatred of some in the establishment toward others.” But by tying himself so closely to Patrushev, he has put himself at risk too.
“In political science,” the Russian commentator says, “there is such a thing as ‘a veto coup,’” one taken “not so much against the ruler as against the emerging movement in a direction that participants in the conspiracy view as unacceptable and not so much for the sake of seizing power as for changing the trajectory of the regime.”