Paul Goble
Staunton, July 16 – Putin launched the war in Ukraine to stabilize the situation in the Russian Federation not only now but in the transition that will follow his death, Vladimir Pastukhov says; but if he doesn’t end the war with a victory before leaving the scene, Russia may very well face a revolutionary situation.
As difficult as it may be to believe, the London-based Russian analyst says, Putin who launched the war to block any possibility of a revolution may thus end by pushing his country into a revolutionary situation (t.me/v_pastukhov/1568 reposted at echofm.online/opinions/v-eto-trudno-poverit-no-putin-tyanet-rossiyu-v-revolyucziyu).
The reason behind that conclusion, Pastukhov continues, is that Moscow doesn’t have infinite resources; and consequently, at some point, it will have to end the war. As long as Putin is in power, he won’t need to; but eventually his successors will be forced to move in that direction, something that will complicate the succession and possibly open the way to revolution.
“We under rate the Putin factor as a stabilizer of the regime,” he argues. Taking his place in the Kremlin when Russia is peace is one thing; but “in conditions of a continuing war, it seems to be that it is improbable” that this can be done quickly, easily and without revolutionary challenges.”
That is because “Putin’s hear ‘won’t be able to handle’ the war, just as the heir of Nicholas I could not” after the Crimean War, Pastukhov says; “and then everything will be as usual: Russia will find itself in a situation in which it will either have to engage in serious reforms or face a revolution – and will be compelled to choose one or the other.”
Given the backgrounds and attitudes of those closest to Putin’s throne, the possibility that they will act in ways that will lead to revolution should not be discounted.
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