Russia’s Future will Be Result of Competition between Centripetal and Centrifugal Forces, Zubov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Aug. 2 – Just as was the case in 1991 when Soviet citizens voted for reviving the Soviet system and then a few months later supported the disintegration of the country, Andrey Zubov says, the future of the Russian Federation will be the outcome of competition between centripetal and centrifugal forces, Andrey Zubov says.

            At present, the Russian historian who now teaches in the Czech Republic says, there are forces pushing Russia in both directions, toward some kind of new unity and toward dissolution. How that will play out is uncertain (svoboda.org/a/rossiyane-do-sih-por-schitayut-sovetskuyu-vlastj-svoey/33820243.html).

            Many residents of the Russian Federation still view the Soviet Union as “their own,” Zubov says; and thus, they want to maintain or even expand Russia back to what it was. At the same time, however, many do not and seek the dissolution even of the Russian state into a number of new countries.

            For many, an empire is attractive “for the simple reason that in it you can dominate another person, people, social group and force them to do not what they want but what you do,” he continues. “This is the greatest pleasure, one even more captivating than sexual feelings” and so it retains support even when others reject the empire so they can live by their own rules.

            Many Russians remain attracted to an imperial arrangement, Zubov argues, and view the state as a means of maintaining their control. Only when they begin to see the state as a threat to themselves, as something they are not part of, do they change and seek a new arrangement for themselves if not yet for others.

            If that happens, and Russians realize that the state is not theirs but an alien force imposed on them as much as on others, he says, “then the liberation of Russian society will begin.”

            In the course of the interview in which he made that argument, Zubov made three others which deserve to be mentioned:

·       First, the Russian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate is one of the key forces supporting the maintenance of the state and empire because of its tradition of servility; and fhe Kremlin does everything it can to keep it that way.

·       Second, when Putin passes from the scene, the government in Russia “will become different almost immediately,” seeking an end to the war in Ukraine and the restoration of relations with the West. No one besides Putin benefits from those things, but that doesn’t mean the essence of the state will change.

·       And third – and this may be Zubov’s most important insight – veterans returning from the war in Ukraine are likely to prove “mostly incapable of action” and won’t threaten the Kremlin; but those still fighting in Ukraine are “capable of more” and “a revolt at the front” is far more likely and a far greater threat.