Paul Goble
Staunton, July 8 – The decline of the water level of the Caspian Sea, now falling at between 20 and 30 centimeters (eight to twelve inches) has become “irreversible,” Aliaga Azizov, deputy head of the State Supervision Service for the Use and Protection of Azerbaijan, says.
Consequently, it is long past time to stop debating whether this is so and to focus instead on adapting to the situation now and preparing for it to become worse in the future, Baku’s senior water specialist says (casp-geo.ru/obmelenie-kaspijskogo-morya-stalo-neobratimym-protsessom-schitayut-v-baku/).
He observes that “the shallowing of the Caspian Sea has a serious impact on various areas: ports, shipping, fishing, coastal tourism and oil and gas infrastructure. This poses additional challenges to countries that depend on sea resources,” and taken together those will require residents and businesses to adapt to new conditions.”
Azizov’s words are important instance not only because they put Azerbaijan at odds with Russian specialists who remain more optimistic about the future but also because they come from someone on the southern shores of the Caspian where water levels over the last decades have fallen less rapidly than in the north.
But more important still is his call for adapting to this new reality rather than continuing to deny it. If Azizov’s position reflects the thinking of the Azerbaijan government – and it is difficult to think that it does not – then Baku will be taking the lead in dredging operations and reconstruction of ports.
That will be an expensive choice, but it is likely to be the only one that will allow Azerbaijan and her littoral neighbors to continue to use the Caspian as a source of food, petroleum products and transit, something that will have an impact on China, the EU, and the West generally which want to continue to send oil and other cargo across the Caspian.
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