Wednesday, April 28, 2021

Russia Odd Man Out among Arctic Countries, Pryanikov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, April 26 – The Kremlin is counting on using its two years as chairman of the Arctic Council to extend its influence across that region, but in one important respect, it faces a serious obstacle, Pavel Pryanikov says. No other country in that region is not social democratic politically and attentive to the needs of its population above all.

            “All the northern countries, except Russia, are constantly among the leaders of all ratings involving human development to the best forms of urban life,” the Russian journalist says. That is understandable: if you have to live with terrible weather, you want the other conditions of your life to be as good as possible (rosbalt.ru/posts/2021/04/26/1899247.html).

            People in these countries thus view Russia as “an anomaly,” and that perspective alone limits Russia’s ability to project influence on them. But it also means, and this may be more important, that whatever the short-term trends in Russia are, over the longer term the country will be pushed by its own climate and its own citizens toward “left-wing democracy.”

Turkic Countries Aren’t Following Ankara in Denouncing US for Recognizing Armenian Genocide

Paul Goble

            Staunton, April 26 – Turkey is outraged that US President Joe Biden has called the horrific events of 1915 a genocide and denounced such a move in the harshest terms. Its closest Turkic ally, Azerbaijan, has done the same. But remarkably, the other Turkic countries have not followed suit, and in at least one. Some are urging that they follow the American example.

            Ankara clearly would like its Turkic allies to follow its own lead and denounce what Washington has done in order to show Turkic solidarity. But despite that obvious desire, it hasn’t yet had much to show for it. Except for Azerbaijan, the Turkic world has remained largely silent (aa.com.tr/ru/мир/глава-тюркского-совета-заявление-байдена-имеет-политическую-мотивацию/2219865).

            What is intriguing is that at least one politician in Kazakhstan, Bakhytzhan Kopbayev, has suggested that his government should break with Ankara on this issue and follow the American example both for reasons of historical accuracy and to show its ability to act independently (realtribune.ru/v-kazahstane-prizvali-priznat-genocid-armyan).

            He notes that “Ankara itself acknowledges the mass murder of 1.5 million Armenians, but it says that all these 1.5 million Armenians were peaceful residents and the Ottoman authorities killed them for reasons other than that they were Armenians. This is pathetic nonsense.”

            Following the US move, Kazakhstan should recognize the mass murders of Armenians in 1915 as a genocide. “And one need not fear Ankara in doing so,” Kopbayev continues. “For 30 years, [Turks] have not invested almost anything in the economy of Kazakhstan,” a sharp contrast to Arab countries and China.

            “It’s time,” he says, “to conduct a foreign policy independent from Ankara’s desires and be in the avantgarde of the progressive world.”

            The Kazakhstan government is unlikely to follow his recommendation, but it is almost certain to remain silent, which Ankara may see as the same thing, or to use his threat to call the events of 1915 a genocide as the basis for making greater demands for Turkish assistance to that Central Asian country.   

Moscow Thinking about Using Prison Labor Again for Major Construction Projects

Paul Goble

            Staunton, April 26 – The Russian government is now thinking about reviving a practice associated with Stalinism: the use of prison labor to work on major construction sites in areas where free labor is scarce, such as the expansion of the Baikal-Amur Mainline (BAM) railway. Legal experts say Moscow can do so as long as it arranges to pay those who take part.

            Vladimir Putin is pushing for the expansion of the BAM but has come up against a problem that earlier Russian rulers have faced: there are too few workers in the region through which it passes and attracting more free laborers would require spending more money than the government has or at least is willing to expend.

            Earlier this year, Moscow decided to make use of military units to fill the gap (windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2021/03/pandemic-crisis-demographic-shortfalls.html), but now, it is considering the more radical step of using prison labor, something that will strike many as a revival of the GULAG.

            In today’s Kommersant, journalists Natalya Skordygina and Tatyana Dyatel note that the Russian government is only talking about reviving a practice it used in the 1930s when it dispatched thousands of GULAG prisoners to build much of the BAM in the first place (kommersant.ru/doc/4791351).

            And they note that legal experts say that current Russian law will allow this without change as long as the authorities make provision for paying any prisoners sent to work there. Right now, the project is under discussion with the transportation ministry, the prison system and Russian rail charged with coming up with a plan by May 14.

            Skordygina and Dyatel note that none of the agencies involved has been willing to confirm what is going on but say they have four independent sources in the government who have provided information about it, noting that if Putin’s plans for the BAM are to be met, more than 10,000 workers must be found quickly.

            Even if all of them were to be prisoners, that would be far fewer than the hundreds of thousands of GULAG inmates who worked there in the 1930s and 1940s. But the image of prisoners working in the same place as GULAG inmates is one that the Kremlin is hardly likely to want to project.

            There are compelling reasons to think that the government may back away from this project not because of any concern about image or morality but rather because the entire BAM project increasingly looks like a waste of time and money. It would support the export of Russian coal to China at a time when China is turning away from fossil fuels, economic analyst Denis Luzin says (nakanune.ru/articles/116909/).

Thirty Years On, RSFSR Law on Rehabilitation of Repressed Peoples Inspires Victims but Remains Unfulfilled

Paul Goble

            Staunton, April 26 – Thirty years ago, Boris Yeltsin signed a law passed by the RSFSR Supreme Soviet calling for the rehabilitation of those nations Stalin had repressed by allowing them to return to their homelands and providing them with compensation for their losses. It also banned any propaganda efforts directed against such peoples and the recovery of their lawful rights.

            But three decades later, Boris Sokolov says, not a single one of its provisions has been enforced. And consequently, a measure which raised so many hopes among those who were deported and whose autonomies were suppressed, remains a source of tension in many parts of the Russian Federation (graniru.org/Society/History/m.281621.html).

            According to the Russian historian, the act had only one single practical consequence: it sparked the war between the Ingush and the Ossetians over the Prigorodny District next to the North Ossetian capital of Vladikavkaz. Inspired by the law, Ingush who had been expelled from there during Stalin’s deportation returned in massive numbers to claim it.

            The Prigorodny District had been part of the Chechen-Ingush ASSR prior to the deportations, and the Ingush reasonably assumed that the 1991 law meant that they should be allowed to live there and that it should again become part of what had become the Ingush Republic. They were quickly and violently disabused.

            Yeltsin, instead of enforcing the law he had signed, sent in police and interior troops to support the Ossetians, an action that left more than 400 Ingush and 100 Ossetians dead and that remains a source of dispute to this day. (On the Prigorodny District conflict’s echoes now, see windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2020/11/ingush-court-allows-appeal-of-ban-on.html.)

            Of course, Sokolov observes the 1991 law contained within it two poison pills that made it impossible to fulfill: it said the deported peoples had the right to return but that their return must not disturb any people who had moved into their lands, and it failed to appropriate funds to compensate anyone.

             As a result, it was a “purely propagandistic” measure. But propaganda measures can have consequences both immediate as in the Prigorodny District war and longer-term. And the 1991 law features one provision that may cause Moscow problems no matter how much the current powers that be refuse to acknowledge it.

            That provision is the definition of repressed peoples. The 1991 law specifies that repressed peoples are “nations, nationalities or ethnic groups or other historically evolved cultural-ethnic communities, for example, the Cossacks, in relation to whom according to ethnic or other membership were carried out at the state level policies of slander and genocide.”

            And in their case, it continues, this was accompanied by their forcible resettlement, destruction of their national-territorial formations, redrawing of national-territorial borders, and the establishment of a regime of terror and force in the places of their special settlement” beyond their historical homelands.

            That provides a basis for claims by far more groups than just those usually listed as “the punished peoples” and for a wholesale reordering of the political system of the Russian Federation. Not surprisingly, the Kremlin doesn’t want to think or talk about this, but on this anniversary at least some of these victims and their descendants are.

            Among them are the Cossacks and especially the Ingush. On the former, see windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2021/02/russians-again-worried-about-cossack.html; on the latter, https://gazetaingush.ru/politika/yakub-patiev-realizaciya-zakona-eto-ne-reshenie-odnogo-dnya-i-dazhe-goda-zdes-neobhodim.)

 

Is Shortage of Refrigerators in Clinics Holding Up Vaccination Program in Russia?

Paul Goble

            Staunton, April 26 – Former president Dmitry Medvedev says that one of the reasons that the drive to meet Vladimir Putin’s plan for the vaccination of 70 million Russians against the coronavirus is that hospitals and clinics do not have enough refrigerators to store the vaccine at required temperatures (kp.ru/daily/27269/4404498/).

            If that is the case, it would be an echo of the kind of bottlenecks the Soviet system often experienced when its leaders pushed for one thing without an appreciation of all the other things that are required for its achievement and then discovered that their efforts were subverted by something small and unexpected.

            Russian officials reported registering 8803 new cases of infection and 356 new deaths from the coronavirus as the pandemic continued to ebb and flow in particular places but plateau for the country as a whole (https://t.me/COVID2019_official/2840, regnum.ru/news/society/3250801.html  and regnum.ru/news/3253375.html).

            Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova says that no new restrictions are planned for the extended May holiday and adds that children will be able to go to camps anywhere in Russia regardless of their place of residence (regnum.ru/news/3253730.html and regnum.ru/news/3253501.html).

            Meanwhile, a new poll finds that a third of Russians believe they have already been infected with the coronavirus and don’t fear a repeat, while one in seven of all Russians still fears being infected (newizv.ru/news/society/26-04-2021/ustali-boyatsya-kazhdyy-tretiy-rossiyanin-schitaet-chto-uzhe-perebolel-covid-19).

            On the vaccine front, the government said almost 12 million Russians have received the first dose of the vaccine and 7.5 million have received the complete series (regnum.ru/news/3253716.html). Despite government efforts, the percentages in St. Petersburg are only slightly higher (regnum.ru/news/3253789.html).

            Moscow says it will deliver the first shipment of vaccines to India in early May (regnum.ru/news/3253880.html), but Brazil now says it won’t reship the Russian vaccine to other countries because of a lack of data on its safety and efficacy (themoscowtimes.com/2021/04/26/coronavirus-in-russia-the-latest-news-april-26-a69117).

            On the economic front, confusion reigns over what will be open and what closed and when during the extended holidays in May (bfm.ru/news/470693). Private clinics expect their incomes to plummet during that period (vtimes.io/2021/04/26/chastnie-kliniki-zhdut-snizhenie-sprosa-na-15-iz-za-prodleniya-maiskih-a4716).

            Economists are worried that last month’s growth in Russian bank profits reflects an increase in unsecured loans as companies and individuals seek to maintain themselves during the economic crisis (rbc.ru/finances/26/04/2021/60866bc99a79476f43488dd9).

            Meanwhile, in other pandemic-related developments in Russia today,

·         Bashkortostan has issued buttons for those who have been vaccinated to wear in order to promote the shots (regnum.ru/news/3253650.html).

·         Officials say Sputnik-Lite will be registered during the May holidays and quickly become available after that (regnum.ru/news/3253370.html).

·         The SOVA Center has published a comprehensive list of the steps religious groups in Russia have taken over the past year to deal with the pandemic (sova-center.ru/religion/news/authorities/karantin/2020/10/d43048/).

Tuesday, April 27, 2021

Karelian Not Just the Language of Villagers, Petrozavodsk Backer of Karelian ‘VKontakte’ Interface Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, April 25 – Karelian is the only titular language of a non-Russian republic that is not the official language of its republic. Instead, Russian is the republic’s state language, Karelian is defined only as an “official” minority language there, and UNESCO classifies it as a tongue on the brink of disappearance.

            Petrozavodsk resident Natalya Vorobey and a team of volunteers have been working for five years to change this by ensuring that Karelian will have a place on the Internet and won’t be a language anyone can dismiss as something spoken only by rural residents (7x7-journal.ru/articles/2021/04/26/eto-ne-tolko-yazyk-na-kotorom-govoryat-v-derevne-zachem-zhitelnica-petrozavodska-perevodit-interfejs-vkontakte-na-karelskij-yazyk).

            Now, they have made a breakthrough. Vkontakte has put up a beta version of a Karelian interface, something that will allow those who go on line regularly to use that language rather than be forced to shift to Russian or something else. Vorobey hopes that this will help slow the decline of the language. At present fewer than half of the 60,000 Karels speak Karelian.

            The activist says that this possibility will show that “Karelian is a language in which it is possible to discuss all issues. It is not just a language spoken int eh countryside … it is one on which one can speak about high technology issues as well.” And this is critical for a nation as small as the Karels.

            Because they are so few and because they live in such a dispersed way, there is little chance, Vorobey says, to organize them in a critical mass except on the Internet. Most of those who use the interface are either young people or those of middle age, people who are perhaps most at risk of losing Karelian because they do not speak it all the time unlike older ones.

            That gives some hope that this interface despite being produced by volunteers operating on a shoestring budget may reverse the trajectory Karelian has been on for almost a century and allow it not only to begin to come back but to attract the notice of officials who may feel compelled to make it and not Russian the language of Karelia. 

Kremlin Knew Chernobyl was an Accident Waiting to Happen Three Years before 1986 Disaster and Then Tried to Blame Foreigners

Paul Goble

            Staunton, April 25 – The Soviet government knew that the Chernobyl atomic power plant was an accident waiting to happen at least three years before the 1986 disaster and, when it did, Moscow tried to find foreigners it could blame for that event, according to KGB archival documents newly released by Ukraine’s Security Service.

            The Ukrainian service has published 35 documents ranging from reports about problems in 1983, 1984 and 1985 and efforts by officials at the plant to present the situation as fully under control even after the meltdown began and by Soviet officials in the capital to find “foreign agents” to blame (mbk-news.appspot.com/korotko/sbu-rassekretila-dokumenty-o-chernobyle/).

            Photostats of the documents are available in their entirety at vr.org.ua/?f[0][name]=Чорнобильська трагедія – злочин радянської влади. Документи Архіву СБУ&f[0][type]=zbirky&f[0][npp][0]=21&p[0]=0&p[1]=21&sd=true&fd=true&so=Дата%2C зростання&as=false&sp=false&vm=0&tb=zbirky&locale=ua.

            Had the KGB managed to evacuate these documents as the Soviet Union dissolved, there is little likelihood that they would have been published, especially as photostats rather than carefully redacted. What Kyiv has now done for Chernobyl, others have for issues ranging from environment to espionage, another way the world has benefited from the end of the USSR.