Russian Counter-Terrorism Operations Designed to Justify Siloviki Presence in North Caucasus, not to Eliminate Any Militants, Ingush Say

Paul Goble

            Staunton, May 31 – For the third time this year, Russian siloviki have conducted a counter-terrorism operation in Ingushetia, which ended with two dead; but Russian claims about the existence of “sleeper cells” there ring hollow because the FSB has now provided any evidence for their existence, Ingush experts say.

            Instead, they suggest, such operations are designed first and foremost to justify the money Moscow spends on the security forces and the continuing presence of Russian security forces not just in Ingushetia but throughout the North Caucasus, something that even those in the republic interior ministry can see.

            This level of distrust reflects not only what Ingush people know about the two who were killed this time around – one was a family man who earlier served in the FSB border forces and had shown no inclination to radicalism of any kind – but also their experience with earlier siloviki operations whose justifications collapsed on close examination.

            Tamirlan Akiyev, the head of the Ingush office of Memorial, tells the Kavkaz-Uzel news agency that “the official versions of the siloviki about the liquidation of militants generate doubts in society not because they are implausible but because they as usual are not supported by any evidence”  (kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/350330/).

                Because the siloviki declared that they had faced resistance and that two militants were killed when the forces responded, “the local population has no faith in official information. This doesn’t meant that it is a priori false, but any information of that type must be checked or supported by additional evidence” besides official statements.

            Magomed Mutsolgov, the head of the MASHR human rights center, is even blunter. He says that the authorities have to earn the trust of the population, “and we know of dozens if not hundreds of examples of illegal actions by the force structures including tortures, kidnappings and extra-judicial executions.”

            It is to be regretted that the siloviki are not fulfilling their responsibilities to protect the population but rather taking actions in order to justify the money Moscow spends on them and their continued presence in Ingushetia and other republics of the North Caucasus by persecuting anyone who questions the rule of the powers that be, republic or Russian.

            The Russian siloviki, Mutsolgov continues, have to organize “counter-terrorism actions” every so often so that the powers in Moscow and Magas will feel compelled to support them especially since many of the officers of these units are anything but professional. Many are little more than unnecessary burdens on the budget.

            “In all the republics of the North Caucasus Federal District, there are a sufficient number of officers of law enforcement agencies and special services who have professional training no worse than those sent in from the outside.” These local people “are more motivated, know the situation in the region, and are connected with its residences and the future of Ingushetia.”

            Even an officer of the republic interior ministry, speaking of course on conditions of anonymity, concurred that the Russian siloviki had not earned the trust of the population and wouldn’t unless and until their units would provide more information on what is actually going on, rather than relying on declarations alone. 

Pandemic has Shifted from Opportunity to Threat for Kremlin, Higher Schools of Economics Scholars Say

Paul Goble

            Staunton, May 30 – The onset of the coronavirus pandemic gave the Kremlin the opportunity to tighten the screws on Russian society under its cover, but now because the pandemic has continues so long and because the response of the powers that be has proved to be inadequate, what was an opportunity has become a threat to the elite, HSE scholars say.

            The Higher School of Economics released two reports about this evolution in Russian attitudes and the state of play between the powers and the people this week, one by its sociologists and the second under the direction of economist Mikhail Dmitriyev. Their results, Republic says, are “sensational” (republic.ru/posts/96840).

            On the one hand, the sociologists report that a large share of Russians either don’t believe in the pandemic at all or think it was something invented to harm their country – and they have such views despite all the evidence before their eyes that the coronavirus and its consequences are very, very real.

            And on the other, Dmitriyev says that Russians have displayed in the course of this crisis a very different pattern than in crises in the past. Atypically, he observes, “aggressive attitudes toward the authorities, interest in political life, and demands for change in the political system all sharply rose” as the pandemic has continued.

            The explanation for this, he suggests, is that “the quarantine is above all a change in the balance of time people have. Many everyday activities on which they had spent time have simply disappeared. And what has taken their place is a time to think.” Russians are thinking and their thoughts must be of concern to the powers that be.

            As the Republic portal points out in reporting Dmitriyev’s words, this observation might not seem so unusual if it came from an opposition politician or a foreign commentator. But instead, it comes from a senior scholar who has routinely been proved right in his judgments about the Russian people and the powers.

            For two decades, commentators have suggested that stability in Russia is based on “an unwritten but strictly observed pact” between Putin and society: “We delegate to him our rights and freedoms, and it provides us with economic growth.”  When that is impossible, he offers at least the pleasures of nationalism as after Crimea.

            But when both of these things have faded and when people have the chance to ask themselves what is going on, the entire “marriage” is at risk.  As Dmitriyev’s colleague, Anastasiya Nikolskaya says, the situation is ripe for a divorce.  But the powers don’t want to agree – they would be left with nothing -- and that means family violence will likely increase.

            Possibly on the part of both sides. 

Russians Now Facing What Americans Did at Start of Pandemic – A Shortage of Toilet Paper

Paul Goble

            Staunton, May 30 – When news of the pandemic first broke, Americans bought toilet paper in such large amounts that a shortage of that essential product emerged. Now, Russians are facing rising prices and shortages because in the absence of trash collections in many places, less paper is being reprocessed and less toilet paper produced (iz.ru/1015462/mariia-perevoshchikova-evgeniia-pertceva/zolotoi-rulon-tualetnoi-bumage-grozit-podorozhanie).

            Today, after several days of decline, the number of new coronavirus infections grew, with that number again outpacing the number of cures, the total number of deaths from the pandemic in Russia rising to 4555 and the total number of infections to date to nearly 400,000 (sibreal.org/a/30643257.html).

            What is especially disturbing is that rising debt is forcing many Russians to work illegally lest they go under financially even though that is putting ever more of them at risk of becoming infected with the coronavirus and putting even more strain on the Russian healthcare and economic systems (ehorussia.com/new/node/20881).

            Despite the willingness of some to work illegally, unemployment both officially registered and actual is rising rapidly, with some predicting it will amount to more than 15 percent in the near future (krizis-kopilka.ru/archives/76785). And experts warn the government isn’t prepared for what will happen in a second wave (business-gazeta.ru/article/470330).

            Many individuals and companies now face bankruptcy because their loans are greater than their incomes and because, as a result, banks are refusing to offer new loans and the government is tightening its requirements for aid as well (krizis-kopilka.ru/archives/76823, krizis-kopilka.ru/archives/76819, krizis-kopilka.ru/archives/76817 and krizis-kopilka.ru/archives/76787).

            And the Kremlin continues to use the coronavirus as cover for increasing repression: United Russia has now proposed increasing fines against those who criticize or offend the powers that be (krizis-kopilka.ru/archives/76807).  

            Meanwhile, other pandemic-related developments in Russia today include:

·         An investigation finds that Russian courts have not worked well during the pandemic (profile.ru/politics/izolyacionnoe-pravosudie-kak-sudy-rabotayut-v-karantin-324954/).

·         Russians like people everywhere are coming up with funny or frightening or even political face masks (themoscowtimes.com/2020/05/30/moscows-face-mask-fashions-embrace-the-funny-weird-and-nonsensical-a70407).

·         The Russian health ministry has given approval to the first COVID-19 vaccine (echo.msk.ru/news/2651899-echo.html).

·         14,000 Russians who have travelled from one region to another are now in 14-day quarantine (novayagazeta.ru/articles/2020/05/30/85615-okey-ugol).

·         As the Kremlin is pushing for reopening, scholars have been found who say that fears about the coronavirus are overrated, statements the powers that be may like but that make increases in infections and deaths more likely (dailystorm.ru/obschestvo/vchera-idu-v-magazin-i-chelovek-idet-v-protivogaze-byvshiy-glavnyy-sanvrach-moskvy-o-sumasshestvii-vokrug-covid-19).