Moscow May Ban Nutcracker Ballet Because Even Talking about Killing a Rat King is Dangerous in Putin’s Russia, Some Say

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 1 – Some Russians say that the Kremlin may pan the popular Nutcracker ballet because even talking about killing the Rat King appears to carry an allegorical meaning and thus is extremely dangerous in Russia where people are being sent to prison and the camps for much less.

            That is just one of the anecdotes now circulating in Russia that have been collected by Moscow journalist Tatyana Pushkaryova (publizist.ru/blogs/107374/47251/-). Among the best of the rest in her latest collection are the following:

·       Russian soldiers in Ukraine are happy that Moscow continues to supply food for the full complement of units even though so many have died. After all, in one case, as a result, they get food for 84 when there are only seven left.

·       Putin says people shouldn’t have problems if they have seven or eight children and their apartments become crowded. All they have to do is to move the pool table from the living room to the library and the tennis table from the second children’s room to the landing.

·       Because there are so many Putin doubles, Russians are confident that they will live and die only under Putin.

·       Russians are prepared to vote as they are directed unless it is for Kadyrov’s much-decorated son.

·       Now that Moscow had declared the LGBTs a movement and begun to punish its members, Russians are asking what kind of an organization that is and whether they should give up rainbow umbrellas. They are also asking what other categories of people will be declared organizations and then punished.

·       More than half of Russians tell pollsters that they are confident about the future and that it won’t be worse than now. The other half think the country has not yet reached bottom.

·       Those who report the cases of killers who get pardoned for service in Ukraine will get longer sentences than the killers did originally.

An Under-Reported Form of Anti-War Protest: Russians Work to Remove ‘Z’ Symbols from Their Cities

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Nov. 29 – With mixed success, activists in Russian cities are seeking to have removed the “Z” symbol of support for Putin’s war in Ukraine that have defaced public buildings near where they live and that are clearly intended to suggest that support for “the special military operation” is well nigh universal, a form of anti-war protests that is seldom reported as such.

            The SibReal portal says that activists in cities like Irkutsk, Novosibirsk, Kirov, Tyumen, St. Petersburg, and Yekaterinburg have organized appeals to local officials to remove these signs which they believe deface the public buildings and send the wrong message to the population (sibreal.org/a/kak-v-rossiyskih-gorodah-dobivayutsya-snyatiya-z-bannerov/32698856.html).

            In some places, the activists have been successful; but in others, they have been threatened with charges of “discrediting the Russian army” and may go to jail as a result. But what their struggle is all about is perhaps best reflected in the comment of Vadim Palko, an activist in Irkutsk.

            He says that “if the Zwastika hangs everywhere and no one speaks out against it, then this means that the Zwastika is normal. And if someone fights for its dismantling and sparks a public debate, then it means that there is something wrong with this symbolism” and that Russians know that and want change.

            Moreover, Palko continues, such actions mean that “there is no total unity, the illusion of which propaganda seeks to impose. And the struggle itself helps people who do not support the war to know that they are not alone and powerless and even encourages others to think about the conflict and what should be done.”

Religion Not Ethnicity Increasingly the Basic Divide in North Caucasus, Varshaver Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Nov. 29 – In Soviet times, the basic divide among the population in the North Caucasus, Yevgeny Varshaver says, was along ethnic lines because Moscow supported those identities and opposed others. But since 1991, he continues, the situation has changed and religion, not nationality in the Soviet sense, is the basic dividing line there.

            The Higher School of Economics sociologist says this is the result of the declining saliency of ethnicity as far as the Russian regime is concerned and the growing contacts between Islamic peoples in the North Caucasus with institutions in the larger Islamic world (nemoskva.net/2023/11/28/indulgencziya-na-nenavist-pochemu-v-rossii-ne-lyubyat-chuzhih/).

            As a result, Soviet ideas about “the friendship of the peoples” no longer are an appropriate way to discuss divisions in these societies because the peoples have changed: they are no longer ethnically defined as they used to be by a secular state but religiously, uniting groups on the basis of Islam, Orthodox Christianity or other faiths.

            According to Varshaver, this change has been highlighted by the recent attacks on Jews in Daghestan, where the various ethnic groups sharing Islam have concluded that they are a community and that they are necessarily and even existentially at odds with others like Orthodox Christians and Jews.

            To the extent the Moscow sociologist is correct, this change presages more conflicts between Muslims and other religious groups in the North Caucasus, a further exodus of Christians and Jews from that region, and what may prove to be the final collapse of Russian influence there.

            At the same time, it also means that movements along ethnic lines in the North Caucasus are likely to be challenged by others who hope to build on a common Islamic identity, something that could weaken the former even as the latter gains strength.

Olzhas Suleymenov Publishes His Memoirs

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Nov. 29 – Olzhas Suleymenov, the Kazakh poet and historian, whose 1975 study Az i Ya attracted international attention and Soviet suppression and whose prominence in Kazakhstan has meant that he is known there simply as “Olzhas” has now at 87 published his memoirs which includes both new observations and older documents.

            The volume, entitled This is How It Was, has appeared in Russian, but it is certain to have a major impact on the rising generation there and abroad as the record of a man who has played such a key role in the thinking of Kazakhs and other Turkic peoples (novgaz.com/index.php/2-news/3591-так-было… and forbes.kz/life/oljas_suleymenov_napisal_novuyu_knigu/).

            It is not yet available electronically. For background on Suleymenov and his continuing influence in Kazakhstan, see windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2021/09/kazakh-authorities-confiscate-paper-in.html, windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2021/01/pandemic-testing-leaders-and-countries.html, windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2014/09/window-on-eurasia-putin-doesnt-know.html, windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2012/10/window-on-eurasia-cis-continuing-and.html and windowoneurasia.blogspot.com/2010/01/window-on-eurasia-suleymenov-says.html.

Putin’s War in Ukraine and Finland’s Accession to NATO Gives New Impetus for Changing Railroad Gauge in Baltic Countries

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Nov. 29 – Although Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have been de facto independent for more than three decades, the three are still integrated into two Russian-dominated projects that are a hangover from the period of Soviet occupation: integration into a broader energy network (BRELL) and a railway gauge at odds with European standards.

            The Baltic countries are committed to escaping both, and Putin’s war in Ukraine and Finland’s accession to NATO have added new impetus to doing so, with the three declaring they will leave BRELL by 2025 and increase efforts to complete Rail Baltica, which will include changing the gauge of rail there from Russian to European ones by the end of the decade.

            (In Russian and still Baltic railways, tracks are separated by 1520 mm, while in Europe and most of the rest of the world, they are separated by only 1435 mm, an arrangement that means that cargo must be shifted at the borders between them, slowing transportation speeds and adding to costs.)

            The costs of bringing Baltic railways into conformity with the European standard are enormous, and progress in doing so has been further slowed by environmental objections, disagreements on routes, and a series of corruption scandals that, along with the economic consequences of separating from the Russian network, have slowed progress.

            Up to now, Estonia and Latvia have not laid a single kilometer of European standard rail, while Lithuania has put down 128 kilometers. But the war in Ukraine and Finland’s NATO membership mean that there is greater pressure to move forward on this project and more support in Europe for it (holod.media/2023/11/29/prizrak-kommunizma/).

Putin’s Boost in Military Spending Puts Russia at Risk of a Collapse Like That of the 1990s if and when Peace Returns, Lipsits Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Nov. 29 – Vladimir Putin’s radically increased military spending is putting Russia at risk of an economic collapse like the one Russia suffered after the demise of the Soviet Union if and when peace is achieved, something few are yet talking about but a danger that Moscow must face up to now, Igor Lipsits says.

            One of the founders of Moscow’s Higher School of Economics says that the increase in military spending is already creating problems, including migration flows driven by the collapse of the civilian economy and the pursuit of higher incomes in military factories (currenttime.tv/a/uvenlichenie-voennyh-rashodov-v-rossii/32706713.html).

            Such people will have to reverse course if peace comes, and that will create serious problems if indeed this shift can be achieved at all, Lipsits says. But far more serious will be the fate of the economy as it is forced to move away from giant military factories and increase civilian production.

            That was a task that Russia faced in the 1990s, and everyone recognizes that it did not handle it well. Unless the government begins to think about how to address this issue in the future, the likelihood that something similar awaits Russia in the future will only grow, the economist says.

            But unfortunately for the country, no one in the Putin regime seems concerned. Indeed, it is taking other steps that recall those in the 1990s that are likely to make the situation worse even before peace happens: the Kremlin has frozen wages except for those in the military and security agencies, an approach that will exacerbate tensions between them.

            Lipsitz doesn’t mention that this danger, one that officials appear afraid to touch, may be one of the reasons why the Kremlin doesn’t see any other option but to further militarize the country and why that in turn makes the expansion of current military operations and the addition of new ones more likely as it tries to stave off disaster.

Climate Change Driving Conflicts over Exclaves and Enclaves in Central Asia, Dadabayeva Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Nov. 29 – Climate change is leading to ever more water shortages across Central Asia, and those shortages in turn have become ever more important drivers of conflict among the countries of that region over the 30 remaining exclaves and enclaves there, Zarina Dadabayeva says.

            In a new article, the senior scholar at the Moscow Institute of Economics argues that there are few prospects the climate and water situations will improve and thus there are more than such conflicts will become more frequent however much the leaders of these countries may want to avoid them.

            Dadabayeva lays out her argument in “Climate Changes and Water Problems of Central Asia in the 21^st Century: Risks of Disintegration,” Geonomika Energetiki 2(2023): 100-119 (in Russian; full text available at geoenergy-journal.ru/wp-content/uploads/Geo-03-2023_forRSL.pdf).

            Climate change and the inability of the countries of the region to agree on sharing water or modernizing their agricultural sectors to reduce waste means that there will be more dust storms, more drought, and more migration out of rural areas, and all these things will become mixed with the issue of borders and especially that of the exclaves and enclaves there.