Per Capita, Non-Russian Republics Suffering Far Fewer Losses in Ukraine than are Many Russian Regions, an Indication of Their Relative Shares in Russian Army

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Oct. 28 – Because of Kadyrov’s bombast and Daghestan’s Protests, many in Russia and the West assume that non-Russians and especially North Caucasians are being used as Putin’s primary cannon fodder in his war in Ukraine and that they are suffering more combat losses than are predominantly ethnic Russian regions.

            But a new analysis by Vladimir Sevrinovsky of the Kavkazr portal which ranks the republics and regions of the Russian Federation not by absolute number of losses, the usual basis for drawing such conclusions but in terms of population shows that neither of these assumptions is correct (kavkazr.com/a/otdayut-li-kavkaztsy-zhiznj-za-putina-popytka-analiza-statistiki-pogibshih-na-voyne/32105004.html).

            In terms of combat deaths per 100,000 population, Chechnya ranks 14^th in terms of all Russian federal subjects; and Daghestan ranks 19^th. The only North Caucasus republic in the top ten in terms of such losses per capita is North Ossetia, Sevrinovsky says, using standard demographic data and Mediazone counts.

            According to him, Buryatia ranks first with 30.86 deaths per 100,000 population, Tyva second with 30.60; North Ossetia third with 19.35; followed by Transbaikal (17.73), the Altai (17.07), Pskov (16.69), Kostroma (16.35), the Jewish Autonomous Oblast (15.95), Sakhalin (12.43) and Ulyanovsk (11.28).

            Of these ten, only two –Buryatia and Tyva – have non-Russian majorities, as the Jewish AO despite its name is overwhelmingly Slavic and Russian. The others are all predominantly and in some cases overwhelmingly ethnic Russian in terms of the composition of their populations. They are the ones who are sending the most men and suffering the greatest losses.

            Sevrinovsky says that “the most powerful correlation” between deaths in the Ukrainian war and  population size is poverty and especially extreme poverty. And he argues that poverty rather than selection by nationality is far and a way “the main factor leading people to go to war before mobilization,” although it is possible that has changed since.

            “Judging from these statistics,” he continues, “the readiness of the majority of Caucasians to fight in Ukraine is lower than among the representatives of many ‘Russian’ regions.” To be sure, Sevrinovsky says, the absence of reliable death figures may mean that there are problems with these conclusions.

            But what numbers are available do “help dispel the myth that the indigenous peoples of Russia are playing in the special operation almost the decisive role and as a result are guilty of the majority of military crimes.”

Putin with No Good Choices Left on Ukraine will Simply Keep Raising the Stakes, Okun Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Oct. 19 – For Putin and his regime who have been driven into a corner in Ukraine, “there do not remain any good choices, Andrey Okun says. And in their absence, he will simply keep raising the stakes, even though none of the steps he is likely to take will “lead to a clear victory for Russia in its war with Ukraine.”

            The St. Petersburg commentator says he will do this because he sees no other way than acting in that way in the misplaced hope that by doing so, something will turn up and that his aggression against Ukraine will thus somehow be vindicated (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=634F8D6D59802&section_id=50A6C962A3D7C).

            While Putin himself may still believe that victory is possible, Okun says, ever more of those around him doubt that will happen. But they will continue to support escalation for the same reason that Putin does, out of a belief that China or Iran or someone else will do something that will allow Russia to pull out a victory or at least something that looks like that.

            The series of strategic mistakes the Kremlin has made have left it “with no other escape routes,” the commentator continues. “After eight months of war, they have nothing to offer the population as a victory trophy or any real proof that this entire war was anything but meaningless” and more than that disastrous.

            Russia is no longer in a position to dictate the results or control the situation. The fact that Putin had to declare mobilization after promising not to shows how far things have gone. Putin and his regime cannot agree on a truce because Ukraine won’t agree to yield territories, and so he will continue to fight despite the costs.

            According to Okun, “Russia is slowly being squeezed to the point where it will likely go for broke and throw all its cards on the table? What’s next in that event? Sending an army of a million toward Kyiv? But that won’t guarantee a victory but only massive losses for the Rusisan side.

            Or will Putin use nuclear weapons? That will put an end to things, but it won’t give him a victory. Instead, he, his regime, and his country will be “wiped off the face of the earth” as a result of Western retaliation.

Mongols View Welcoming Kalmyks, Buryats and Tyvans Equivalent of Israel’s Repatriation of Jews

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Oct. 20 – Mongolia is one of the countries to which men from the Russian Federation have fled to avoid mobilization and combat in Ukraine, but it is unique in that the majority of those who have arrived there are not ethnic Russians but Buddhist Kalmyks, Buryats and Tyvans whom Mongols view a culturally close to themselves.

            In fact, some Mongols say that they view welcoming members of these three fraternal peoples as the equivalent of Israel’s repatriation of Jews, as a national duty to help those who are under pressure or suffering discrimination elsewhere, in this case, in the Russian Federation (idelreal.org/a/32085643.html).

            While Mongolia was partially Sovietized as early as the 1920s, it never became part of the USSR or experienced the influx of ethnic Russians that the Central Asian republics of the USSR did. At one point, there were approximately 110,000 Russians there but that number has no declined to no more than 2,000.

            As a result, there was never any center of Russian culture there; and as a result, while some ethnic Russians have come since mobilization was declared, most of those from the Russian Federation who have are Kalmyks, Buryats and Tyvans who have suffered from far more radical recruitment and are closer in culture to the Mongols.

            Both their own culture and the welcome they have received in Mongolia have disposed many of the people from the Buddhist nationalities of the Russian Federation to view Mongolia as a second, “alterative” motherland, one that is a model for them because of its independence, democracy, and desire to live in peace with all its neighbors.

            Daavr Dorzhin, an Oyrat-Kalmyk who has moved to Mongolia, says that some of his fellows there are now talking about the need to create “separatist movements” in their homelands so that “Kalmykia, Buryatia, Tyva and Sakha will be able to escape from Russia and not bear responsibility for the actions of the Putin regime and not suffer for its decisions.”

            The Mongolian government has not publicly supported such groups, in contras to Ukraine which has, but the new arrivals say that many in Mongolia do support their actions and they expect the experiences they have in Mongolia will have serious consequences for their homelands when they are able to return.

            (For more on the non-Russian emigrations in Mongolia, see windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/10/buryats-kalmyks-and-tuvins-fleeing-to.html and windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/10/many-among-numerically-small-peoples-of.html.)

 

Any New Mobilization will Be Both More Difficult and More Risky than the First for the Kremlin, Gallyamov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Oct. 22 – Even as some in Moscow are pushing for new mobilizations and an expansion of the Russian army so as to overwhelm Ukraine, Abbas Gallyamov is outlining the reasons why each new mobilization and expansion in the size of the military will be more difficult to carry out and pose more threats to the Kremlin itself.

            The Russian commentator who earlier worked as a Putin speechwriter says that “each new wave of mobilization will be a little more difficult than the previous one. The most uncomplaining have already been taken away. Now, the regime must take those who had the courage to evade mobilization before” and who believe they can do so again (publizist.ru/blogs/112974/44238/-).

            “The same logic applies to protests,” Gallyamov says. Up to now, they haven’t been that large, primarily because “those who went to the front were mainly those incapable of demonstrating their unhappiness with that prospect … During future waves, when the authorities come for the less loyal and more independent-minded ones, the chances of protest will grow.”

            And that in turn is likely because “by that time, everyone will know what is happening to those who were taken and are now serving at the front.”

            Of course, the authorities could learn from their mistakes and correct them so that the mobilization process will improve.  But that prospect is almost certainly “hypothetical” given that the powers that be have shown no ability to learn from their mistakes and instead believe that they will succeed if they just continue doing what they have been.

            Unfortunately for them, they face a problem: Those Russians most supportive of Putin’s policies are the ones who are dying ecause they are the most wiling to “believe in fairy tales about Ukrainian Nazis and didn’t resist mobilization.” But because that is so, “the regime is [unwittingly] destroying its own social base.”

            Gallyamov’s observations come as others in Moscow are pressing for more mobilizations and the creation of a mass army on the Soviet model. Such a force, analysts like Aleksandr Khamchikhin say, would overwhelm Ukraine as most Russians want and intimidate the West whose leaders are committed to small professional forces (nvo.ng.ru/realty/2022-10-20/4_1211_ukraine.html).

            If Russia mobilizes a mass army, it will only frighten the West still more, Khamchikhin argues; but if it tries to do so, Gallyamov suggests, it will lose more than it will gain and may even become its own gravedigger.

Lukashenka’s Continuing Belarusianization Shows He May Turn Away from Moscow Once Again, Shiyenko Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Oct. 23 – Sergey Shiyenko, a commentator with the APN news agency which has close ties to the Kremlin, argues that despite everything Alyaksandr Lukashenka has done to show loyalty to the Kremlin including being the only former Soviet republic to back Russia’s position on Ukraine, there is a clear sign that the Minsk leader may turn on Moscow once again.

            According to Shiyenko, Russians can only be concerned about the forcible Belarusianization of the social landscape in the neighboring country, a policy that is designed to reinforce Belarusian language and identity and thus separateness from Vladimir Putin’s Russian world (apn.ru/index.php?newsid=42579).

            Indeed, after surveying the current state of Minsk’s efforts and comparing the with the past, the commentator concludes that conditions are being created that will make it possible for the Belarusian leader to engage in the next “political summersault” and turn away from his promises to form a union state.

            Lukashenka has maneuvered so often that Shiyenko’s diatribe may be nothing more than an echo of entirely natural concerns that the Minsk group may prove unreliable as far as Moscow is concerned. But it may presage something else, given that Russia now has troops on Belarusian territory – an indication that the Kremlin will now press for an end to Belarusianization.

            If the latter, such a move would set up a serious conflict between the two governments given that Lukashenka has maintained himself in power not only by the use of force but by the occasional bow in the direction of the interests of the Belarusian people. Eliminating Belarusianization could threaten his power just as much as rejecting Moscow’s demands.

Civil Disobedience Best Way Forward for Russian Opposition, Podrabinek Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Oct. 22 – Russians realize they have to do something to oppose Putin and his destructive policies, Aleksandr Podrabinek says; but regime repression and the fact that many opposition leaders have fled abroad to save themselves leaves them with few good alternatives. The best, the senior human rights activist in Moscow says, is massive civil disobedience.

            By his massive expansion of his invasion of Ukraine earlier this year, Putin “released the genie of force from its bottle,” Podrabinek says. He expected that genie to be confined to Ukraine, but it has spread to Russia as well (svoboda.org/a/pobeditj-bez-nasiliya-aleksandr-podrabinek---o-buduschem-protesta/32088555.html).

            Unfortunately, the still powerful repressive apparatus of the Putin state guarantees both that those who use violence will suffer personally and the crackdown against them will be used to suppress civil society more generally, the rights campaigner continues. But that should not discourage those who want to show their opposition to the regime.

            “Russians still have an effective instrument of non-violent resistance – civil disobedience,” he says. They need not participate in activities that support the powers that be by working in military industry, conducting research that helps the Kremlin, obeying laws that violate human rights, or pay fines levied by politically motivated courts.

            According to Podrabinek, “Civil disobedience is above all a personal decision. If the cowardly Russian elite can protest only if it has a passport and visa in hand, you should not wait for a standard-bearer. You must start doing everything yourself. It will probably be difficult and victory won’t come quickly, but even a journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.

Conflict in Ukraine ‘War of Soviet and Russian Imperial Succession,’ Plokhii Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Sept. 26 – Empires rarely die overnight as many imagined happened with the Moscow empire in 1991. Instead, their decay and ultimate demise can take decades or even centuries, Serhii Plokhii says. And consequently what is going on in Ukraine now is part of “a war about Soviet and Russian imperial succession.”

            “It is a continuation of the disintegration of the disintegration of the Russian Federation that had started during World War I, was arrested by the Bolsheviks and then continued in 1991 with the fall of the Soviet Union,” the director of the Harvard Ukrainian Research Institute says (ukrainian-studies.ca/2022/09/26/interview-with-serhii-plokhy-russias-war-against-ukraine-empires-dont-die-overnight/).

            “The fact that Putin is back on the international scene with ideas that come from the Russian Empire, from imperial Russian thinkers, is just one more indication that long-range history is at play here,” Plokhii says – and one more indication that what is happening in Ukraine is not something isolated from imperial decay but very much part of it.

“As the result of this war,” he continues, “there will be less and less incentive for anyone in Russia, but also in Ukraine, to subscribe to Putin’s imperial ideology of Russia and Ukraine being one of the same people and one of the same nation. So this war really puts an end to that sort of rhetoric” and will “hopefully” lead to the formation of post-imperial nations.”

            And what this means is that the current war is yet “another bloody step on the long, long road of the disintegration of the Russian Empire.” At the very least, it points to “the eventual end of that process. We know that empires collapse and that imperial nations reinvent themselves as nation states.”

            But “we also know from history that, unfortunately, this takes time and is very often accompanied by bloody wars.”