Paul
Goble
Staunton, May 12 – Twenty years ago
today, the Bishkek Protocol went into effect and established a ceasefire
between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces and led to the formation of the OSCE
Minsk Group that has monitored the ceasefire and sought to promote a resolution
of the conflict.
On this occasion, the co-chairs of
the Minsk Group issued a joint declaration noting the continuing importance of
the ceasefire and the importance of continuing negotiations toward a settlement
(vestikavkaza.ru/news/Minskaya-gruppa-podvela-itogi-20-godam-mirnogo-uregulirovaniya-nagorno-karabakhskogo-konflikta.html).
And “Vestnik
Kavkaza” interviewed Azerbaijani, Armenian and Russian experts on where things
stand now and where they may be heading in the coming months. (vestikavkaza.ru/news/Dvadtsat-let-prekrashcheniya-ognya-itogi-i-perspektivy.html).
Fikret
Sadykhov of Baku’s Western University said that when the ceasefire was agreed
to, the situation in Azerbaijan was one of “internal chaos and intra-political
struggle. A breathing space was of course necessary and it became possible
thanks to the coming to power of Heydar Aliyev.”
But
20 years later, we of course cannot be satisfied by the fact that many hopes
for further resolution [of the conflict] have not been justified either by the
work of the Minsk Group, by moves toward a constructive position by Armenia or
by the fulfillment of the resolutions of the UN Security Council,” he said.
“In
essence,” Sadykhov continued, “we have been witnesses of the most varied
declarations about the recognition of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan
and about the need for conducting peace talks and a peaceful resolution of the
problem, but all the same they have not promoted the resolution of the conflict
at all.”
It
is better for everyone to make such statements than not to do so, the Baku
professor said, “but practical steps and concrete results ought to follow them.” That has not been the case but would be if “the
leading states exerted the necessary influence on that side which is not
fulfilling the norms of international law and thus resolve on the basis of
these norms the drawn out conflict.”
Sergey
Minasyan, the deputy director of the Caucasus Institute, said that what has
occurred during the last 20 years has been important because it has preserved a
ceasefire which might otherwise have broken down and promoted conversations
even though those had not led to a breakthrough. He suggested that more of the same is likely.
Asim
Mollazade, a member of Azerbaijan’s parliament, said that in his view, there
had only been “an imitation” of peacemaking.
The ceasefire and the resulting end of bloodshed were “positive” steps,
but the preservation of the status quo since that time has left Armenia in
possession of a large part of Azerbaijani territory.
“Today,”
the Milli Mejlis deputy said, “both the European Union and the United States
are imposing various sanctions on Russia in connection with the situation in
Ukraine. However, before Ukraine and even before Georgia and Moldova was the
case of Karabakh and Azerbaijani territories.”
“Why
has the aggressor country in this case not experienced any sanctions, any
threats, or any serious international condemnation,” Mollazade asked
rhetorically, and why is it “thus able to continue the status quo of 1994?”
Aleksandr
Makarov, the director of the Armenian branch of the Institute of the CIS
Countries, said that a ceasefire is better than no ceasefiire but that “daily
we hear about violations of this regime,” a situation that means that “after 20
years,” the countries involved are still in a state of “’neither war nor peace’”
and of “stable instability.”
And
he held out little hope for those like some of the Minsk Group co-chairs who
believe that forward progress will be possible if the issue of Karabakh is
separated from the issue of the other parts of occupied Azerbaijan. That is unacceptable “at a minimum for the
Karabakh side,” Makarov said.
What
is needed, Makarov suggested is “political will” from both Azerbaijan and
Armenia.
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