Paul
Goble
Staunton, May 13 – Vladimir Putin’s
decision to name an MVD general as his plenipotentiary representative to the
North Caucasus came as no surprise given that that federal district is far from
pacified, but his choice of an army general for that position in Siberia raises
some broader questions about the Russian president’s current thinking and
future plans.
At a superficial
level, Putin’s action is simply about filling a position that had been occupied
by Viktor Tolokonsky who will now become governor following the appointment of Lev
Kunetsov, who had been governor there to head the newly created North Caucasus
development ministry (nakanune.ru/news/2014/5/12/22352402/).
But the Kremlin leader’s decision to
turn a second time within the week to the force structures for another
plenipotentiary representative suggests both that Putin may want to use these
bodies less for the development of new investment programs or policy implementation
than for control, both political and even physical.
That possibility is especially intriguing
because Putin has chosen a general for a region that has not shown the kind of
instability found in several other federal districts and could mean that the
Russian president plans to take actions, either dramatic budget cuts or purges
of regional officials, that would make having a representative of the force
structures there especially useful.
Consequently, the biography of the
new presidential plenipotentiary is worth attending to for clues about both
Putin’s concerns and his plans. The new
man is Nikolay Rogohkin, who prior to this appointment was first deputy minister
of internal affairs with the rank of general of the army.
In the military since 1969,
Rogozhkin served in progressively higher posts in the Group of Soviet Forces in
the GDR, commander of a tank regiment in the Kyiv military district, and commander
of a motorize rifle division in the Turkestan Military District. He
participated as a military planner in Chechnya in 1996 and then was involved in
military action along the Tajik-Afghan border.
In 2000, he was transferred to the
internal forces of the interior ministry, rising through the ranks of that
command to become commander in chief of those forces with the rank of colonel
general. In 2009, he was promoted to full general and named deputy minister of
internal affairs, and then in 2013, he was named first deputy interior minister.
His military background in Germany,
Chechnya and Central Asia and his work both in the regular army and the
internal forces suggests that Rogozhkin is first and foremost a commander
rather than an economic administrator and thus is going to focus as is his
colleague in the North Caucasus on security issues.
But that raises two larger questions
to which there are as yet no obvious answers: Is Putin planning to make the
presidential plenipotentiaries primarily about security? And just what security
threat – either from the population or within the elite – does he see emerging
against himself?
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