Paul
Goble
Staunton, November 10 – Sixty-eight
percent of Russians say they do not want their sons to fight in southeastern
Ukraine on the side of pro-Moscow militants, according to a new Levada Center
poll. Only one in seven – 13 percent – would support doing so, and one in five –
19 percent – refrained from giving an answer.
Those figures suggest that
enthusiasm for Vladimir Putin’s subversion and invasion of Ukraine is less deep
than many have thought, and another showing that only 13 percent of Russians
accept the Kremlin line that no Russian forces are fighting in Ukraine suggests
that Russians are skeptical of official accounts (ng.ru/politics/2014-11-10/3_crimea.html).
But if Russians are not supportive
of military action in southeastern Ukraine, the Levada Center poll found, they
remain supportive of the annexation of Crimea, with 55 percent saying they
approve, only two percent less than in March.
But even with regard to Crimea, there have been some interesting
changes.
The new poll found, in the words of
Aleksey Gorbachev, political observer for “Nezavisimaya gazeta,” that those who
oppose the annexation of Crimea cite not only the violation of stability in the
region (68 percent) but also the impact of Western sanctions (23 percent), and
the violation by Moscow of its international agreements (19 percent).
Those who back the annexation most
often say that this is because “’Crimea is a Russian land,’” the official view.
Others echo Moscow propaganda about it, pointing to what that source says is
the threat of rightwing radicalism there (36 percent) or “forced Ukrainization”
(16 percent). Overwhelmingly, they point to the fact that Russia annexed Crimea
without force.
That is what makes the situation in
southeastern Ukraine so different. While small fractions of Russians do not
believe that Russian forces are involved there and slightly more believe that
those Russians there are “volunteers,” many do not want to see Russian units
involved or their involvement investigated lest it undermine Russia’s reputation.
Aleksey Grazhdankin, the deputy
director of the Levada Center, commented that “people consider the unification of
Crimea as the result of a free referendum without military interference.” The
situation in Ukraine’s southeast is different, and Russians “do not consider
that Russian military units are required to interfere in this conflict.”
Konstantin Kalachev, the head of the
Moscow Political Experts Group, said that “attitudes toward what is happening
in the Donbas are changing,” not only because of problems there but because of
problems in Russia. The Donetsk and Luhansk regimes “are not so attractive.”
Russians increasingly recognize, he
continued, that Donbas residents are having to make “a choice between the bad
and the worse.” And the Russians, who have their own problems have rationally
decided that “their choice is their problem,” not that of the Russian people.
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