Paul
Goble
Staunton, July 9 – Daghestani head
Ramazan Abdulatipov is trying ever more steps to block the rise of what people
in his republic now call the People Against Corruption Party – “the party of
the muftiate’ – because he fears that the ruling United Russia Party may not
only fail to get its usual 90 percent of the vote but might not even win a
majority in the upcoming elections.
That is the judgment of Mairbek
Agayev, the editor of Makhachkala’s “Chernovik” newspaper, according to an
analysis of the current state of Daghestani politics offered by Arsen Malikov of
the OnKavkaz portal (onkavkaz.com/news/1120-ramazan-abdulatipov-pytaetsja-ostanovit-partiyu-muftija-cherez-ego-nastavnika-abdulzhalila-afan.html?fromslider).
But the ways in which Abdulatipov is
trying to block a victory by “the party of the muftiate” both highlight his own
political weakness and the strength of the opposition which has now based itself
on the Sufi orders of Islam which traditionally have been the dominant form of
social organization in that most Muslim of all republics in Russia.
It is clear that Abdulatipov
understands his predicament, Agayev says, and “being an experienced party
nomenklatura man is trying to shift the battle to opposition territory setting
his opponents against one another.” But
his attempts to do so may backfire because they open the way for greater sufi
influence in government even if he gains his immediate electoral goal.
According to the “Chernovik” editor,
Abdulatipov last week met with Abdulzhalil afandi Karanaisky, one of the tariqat
sheikhs of Daghestan. No details of the meeting have yet leaked out, but it
seems certain that the head of the republic would not have met with the sufi
sheikh if he weren’t worried about the so-called “party of the muftiate.”
Before the death of Sheikh Said
afandi Chirkeyski several years ago, Abudulzhalil afandi was widely considered
to be the second most influential sufi leader in the republic; but after Said
afandi died, the mufti, Akhmad Abdullayev, became sheikh instead. He is now
behind the party of the muftiate.
Abudulzhalil afandi nonetheless has
remained extremely influential among Daghestanis, and Abdulatipov clearly hopes
to play on existing tensions between the two men to weaken Akhmad Abdullayev
and his party. But the price of winning
Abudulzhalil afandi’s support against Akhmad Abdullayev would certainly involve
deferring to the former in the future.
According to Agayev, Abdulatipov has
made another move to divide the Muslim community of his republic for his own
political ends that involved meeting with Ravil Gainutdin, the chairman of the Muslim
Spiritual Directorate (MSD) of Russia. But that meeting too only calls
attention to his own weakness and the strength of the Sufi party.
By administrative means, of course,
the current head of the republic may manage to eek out a victory. But these
moves show that it is unlikely to be recognized as honest and just by the
Muslims of Daghestan. And to the extent
that happens, Abdulatipov and his Moscow backers will be weakened in that North
Caucasus republic and perhaps elsewhere as well.
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