Paul
Goble
Staunton, February 27 – Moscow
analysts have been on a rollercoaster about Donald Trump ever since he was
against their expectations elected in November 2016. Initially, many of them
expected a golden age of Russian-American cooperation. Then, they decided he
lacked the power to oppose anti-Russian groups in the US and might even be
impeached.
Now, ever more of them are
suggesting that Trump’s own “America first” nationalism is driving Washington’s
foreign policy, that he has rebuilt his standing inside the US to the point
that some are predicting he’ll be re-elected in 2020, and that Moscow must be
prepared for an unpredictable but often hostile US for the next six years.
That new consensus in Russian
thinking is well-reflected in interview Sergey Karaganov, one of Moscow’s most
respected geopolitical thinkers, gave to Argumenty
i fakty several weeks ago that was republished today in the influential
journal, Russia in World Affairs (globalaffairs.ru/pubcol/Vtoroi-srok-Donalda-Trampa-vpolne-realen-19387).
“Trump is winning,” the Moscow
commentator says. “It is already common ground that he will not be removed and
that he is beginning to push his own agenda in both domestic and foreign
policy. That agenda pleases a
significant part of Americans, and Trump’s ratings … have stabilized despite
the wild hysteria in the American media.”
According to Karagannov, Trump “has
every chance not only to work to the end of his first term but to have a
second. In the worst case, he could put in his place his daughter Ivanka. I’m
joking,” the Moscow analyst says, “but in every joke as they say, there is only
a dollop of joking.”
Trump
has adjusted to America’s diminished status in the world by promoting “limited
involvement without obligations,” Karaganov says. This requires special forces
but is relatively inexpensive. The military like it, they and the
military-industrial complex are part of his base, and he supports this
approach.
According to the Moscow commentator,
“strategy doesn’t lie: [Russia and the US] really are competitors but we are
not opponents, although a significant part of the old liberal elite of the US
considers us enemies. Trump is attached to a healthier conception;” and no one
directly challenged what he has outlined in his national security strategy.
To be sure, Karaganov continues, “Trump’s
America is extremely aggressive and imperialistic. But which is an America
which above all is concerned not about global values but about its own
interests. It is understandable, and it can and must be contained, and in some
places, one may event try to reach agreements with it.”
One should not expect an improvement
in Russian-American relations anytime soon, he says. “Trump would like to
develop relations with us, but he sees that this will give him an enormous
number of minuses and very few pluses from the point of view of his domestic
situation. Therefore, he has put this task off.”
In thinking about Russia’s
relationship with the US, he continues, Moscow must recognize that improving
ties with Trump would require above all Russia distancing itself from China.”
And at present, “relations with China are orders of magnitudes more important
than those with the US.”
According to Karagannov, “confrontation
with the US is going to last a long time. Its main cause consists in the fact
that the Americans have finally understood that they have lost military
supremacy and that Russia and its nuclear weapons, which limit the possibilities
of the US to impose its policy on the world, is to blame.”
Another reason for the deterioration
of ties is that the American elite “has lost control over its own population as
a result of which Trump came to power. They want to restore this control by any
means possible and in the first instance by control over social media.” Russia can be useful as a scarecrow for them.
No comments:
Post a Comment