Paul Goble
Staunton,
December 8 – The possibility that Vladimir Putin will return two or more of the
Kurile Islands the Soviet Union seized at the end of World War II in exchange
for a peace treaty with Japan has an important lesson for the world about
Crimea: Russians will celebrate its return to Ukraine if Putin or his successor
in the Kremlin tells them to, Vitaly Portnikov says.
Too
many people assume that Russians have always wanted to “take back” Crimea and
that they will never yield territory to Japan or anyone else, the Ukrainian analyst
continues. But in fact, while a few do care about these things, most will
follow the Kremlin line wherever it leads (espreso.tv/article/2018/12/07/vitaliy_portnykov_rosiyany_raditymut_povernennyu_krymu).
If Putin does
decide to hand back the Kuriles to Japan, he continues, “the population will
have to unanimously approve this decision of the boss and not protest. And they
will approve it, have no doubt,” Portnikov says. They will celebrate this great act of
statesmanship and dismiss the questions of any foreign journalist who may
inquire about how they feel.
To the question as to how they can
put up with a loss of territory, they will answer “’on the other hand, we have
peace with Japan,’ ‘on the other hand, we have investments,’” or simply “’you
are a provocateur,’ ‘Russia is a generous soul,’ and what is most important, ‘this
isn’t ours!’”
Exactly the same thing would occur
with Crimea, Portnikov continues. “No one should doubt it.” When Putin or his
successor decide to return Crimea to Ukraine “to achieve the normalization of
relations with the West and ‘the eternal friendship with a fraternal country,’”
a few will protest and they will be dispersed by force.
Despite expectations, “the rating of
the ruler on the day of handing over Crimea to Ukraine will rise to the
heavens,” and Russians will celebrate what he has done – and they’ll use
exactly the same terms that will be used about the Kuriles. After all, that is what Russians will be told
to think by television.
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