Paul
Goble
Staunton, December 4 – The Kremlin’s
goals with respect to Ukraine almost certainly preclude any compromise even
with the incoming Trump Administration: Sergey Markov, who is close to the
Kremlin and Russia’s intelligence services, says that the US under Trump “is
ready to leave Ukraine but on conditions that are unacceptable for Russia.”
Those conditions, the Moscow
politician and commentator says, woud be Russian acceptance of “the
Finlandization of Ukraine.” The Americans have already proposed that, he says,
on the basis of the idea that this would be a compromise everyone could live
with (politobzor.net/show-115000-ssha-gotovy-uyti-s-ukrainy-no-na-nepriemlemyh-dlya-rossii-usloviyah.html).
Under its terms, Markov says, “Russia
wouldn’t think about reaching the Carpathians and thee Americans wouldn’t think
about crossing the Dniepr.” But “we consider that this is an incorrect approach”
because Moscow believes that “we must return power in Ukraine to the people”
and that the people will want to be closer to Moscow than that.
That will require
regime change in Ukraine, he continues, because “the Ukrainian people cannot
change the powers that be because it lives under conditions of dictatorship. Earlier,
there was democracy in Ukraine. Now, there is a Banderite dictatorship.” That
must be changed in order to resolve the crisis.
Markov’s words suggest that the
Kremlin’s goals remain far greater than any Western government can accept
because they require that the West agree to or at least acquiesce in Moscow’s
undermining and replacement of the current government in Kyiv and in Ukraine
becoming a Russian satellite rather than a country in between in the manner of
Finland.
Markov’s remarks only add to the importance
of three other declarations this past week:
The first is Ukrainian President
Petro Poroshenko’s statement that “Ukraine is now fighting to bury the Soviet
Union in the heads of certain people” because while it has died officially, it
hasn’t died in the minds of many and Moscow continues to view Ukraine as “a
colony” (rbc.ru/politics/02/12/2016/5841da399a794708b2f3f606?from=newsfeed).
The second is Ukrainian commentator
Vitaly Portnikov’s conclusion that “no one,” including pro-Putin politicians in
Europe, “will recognize Crimea” as part of the Russian Federation because to do
so would undermine the international system of which they are a part (gordonua.com/news/crimea/portnikov-krym-ne-priznaet-nikto-eto-ya-mogu-chetko-skazat-162153.html).
And despite Moscow’s
continuing assertions that sanctions against it will soon be lifted, Portnikov
adds, the sanctions are still in place, although they may be lifted eventually.
But they are already playing an essential role and as long as they remain will
continue to do so because even when they are lifted Russia will be that much
further behind the West and thus weaker.
And the third is evidence that there
is “new life” to the idea of a Baltic-Black Sea initiative now that the former
leaders of the region have come together in the search for peace rather than a
military alliance against Russia and have agreed to include in their number a
Russian representative (charter97.org/ru/news/2016/12/3/233196/).
Irina Vereshchuk, the
head of the International Center for Baltic-Black Sea Research and Consensus,
tells Radio Liberty that including a Russian representative is not a retreat
from the group’s purposes which are to ensure security for all in the region
but a way for the countries “in between” to achieve exactly that (svaboda.org/a/28153065.html).
“We are convinced that war which
could begin at any moment would touch not only Ukraine. Today, Ukraine is
suffering, but tomorrow it could be Poland and other countries, and the EU and
NATO cannot ensure” that Russia will not “annex or occupy” even Latvia or
Lithuania.
“Therefore,” Vereshchuk continues, “we
have taken on ourselves responsibility and will try to develop common positions
not against someone but for peace, for unity and for cooperation. This will be
a platform on which it should be possible to listen to the opinion of this
side. And this, I think, will be effective.”
“We have an action plan,” she says, “and we will propose it to the
governments of the EU and the US, a plan of getting out of the global crisis
which has arisen today.” She adds that Ukrainian President Poroshenko “supports
our initiative and welcomes it” and says that her group will work to hold
inter-parliamentary hearings in the next few weeks.
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